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2015, Erdoğan, Gül, Davutoğlu -- 2 (Authority Problems)

16.08.2014 18:27

On Thursday, I wrote that there are two main contenders to the prime ministerial race: outgoing President Abdullah Gül and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu. As far as we know, these two are neither corrupt nor weak enough to be puppets of Prime Minister and President-elect Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Thus, in one way or another, we can start to talk about the end of Erdoğan's mafia regime. With Gül, this will be speedier and with Davutoğlu, this may take one or two years, if he can win the 2015 general election. If not, it is already the end of the mafia regime anyway! It seems that Davutoğlu will be chosen by Erdoğan to be the next prime minister. So, let us focus on him and leave the Gül question for another piece. Davutoğlu's prime ministry may not serve Erdoğan's interests.There are several reasons but I will try to mention a few of them. Davutoğlu is one of the very few ministers who have their own personality, charisma, self-confidence, knowledge, international stature and so on. He do

On Thursday, I wrote that there are two main contenders to the prime ministerial race: outgoing President Abdullah Gül and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.

As far as we know, these two are neither corrupt nor weak enough to be puppets of Prime Minister and President-elect Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Thus, in one way or another, we can start to talk about the end of Erdoğan's mafia regime. With Gül, this will be speedier and with Davutoğlu, this may take one or two years, if he can win the 2015 general election. If not, it is already the end of the mafia regime anyway! It seems that Davutoğlu will be chosen by Erdoğan to be the next prime minister. So, let us focus on him and leave the Gül question for another piece. Davutoğlu's prime ministry may not serve Erdoğan's interests.

There are several reasons but I will try to mention a few of them. Davutoğlu is one of the very few ministers who have their own personality, charisma, self-confidence, knowledge, international stature and so on. He does not owe Erdoğan his existence and, unlike many others in the Justice and Development Party (AKP), he can survive without the help of Erdoğan. Initially, he may have agreed to be a puppet to get the prime ministerial position, but he will not be a puppet, especially after he wins the 2015 election, if he of course ever wins it. Davutoğlu is not a Binali Yıldırım or a Mehmet Ali Şahin.

Davutoğlu is one of the two ministers (the other is Beşir Atalay) who have groomed their own loyal group over the decades. They have positions in the bureaucracy, academia and media. Davutoğlu is the leader of a semi-religious, as it were, community. They are loyal to him and not to Erdoğan. Most of these supporters are critical of several aspects of Erdoğan's policies, corruption and so on. They are content with Erdoğan's war against the Hizmet movement but they would not stretch it as far as Erdoğan does. Most importantly, they are not as corrupt as Erdoğan's inner circle. Thus, in the medium run, they will gradually eradicate Erdoğan's power in the government and bureaucracy.

Davutoğlu is a relative of the Ülker family, who are one of the most affluent Muslim business families in Turkey. As is well-known, their group's relationship with Erdoğan has not been good for the last few years. Erdoğan's son Bilal Erdoğan was illegally wiretapped and millions heard that Bilal swore at Davutoğlu's son-in-law, who is a member of the Ülker family, over a dispute about the ownership of a sports club! Erdoğan canceled a multi-billion-dollar public tender that Ülker won, without a credible reason. In short, Davutoğlu does not need Erdoğan's money to fight in politics.

Davutoğlu is not a fighter. He will not be ready to break to law just to cover the Erdoğan regime's corruption. His inner circle will not do it either. This is, of course, politics and politics can change people dramatically. It has for sure changed Davutoğlu a lot, for the worse. Thus there is no guarantee that Davutoğlu will not be as ferocious as Erdoğan to cover up corruption. But there is no plausible reason that he would stick to the conspiratorial line of Erdoğan and try to get away with corruption. If he gets good survey results that AKP voters want to see a less corrupt AKP, he may not hesitate to “sacrifice” Erdoğan's circle. Davutoğlu has his own ideas, so he will not obey whatever Erdoğan's circle tells him. All this will create problems of authority between Erdoğan and Davutoğlu. With such tension, Gül's supporters may easily side with Davutoğlu against Erdoğan.

Davutoğlu is more ideological and less pragmatic than Gül. Unlike Gül, he will not have advisers from all walks of life. Thus, most probably, he will not be ready to listen to different perspectives and viewpoints. He is not a good listener anyway. He loves to talk and loves to transform everything into a lecture. This will pave the way for his mistakes. His record in the Foreign Ministry is telling enough. You can listen to the staff of the ministry for an innumerable number of anecdotes to this effect. Mistakes in the Foreign Ministry do not directly translate into a loss of bread and butter, but the Prime Ministry is totally different. Utopian adventurism may cost the economy very dearly.

İHSAN YILMAZ (Cihan/Today's Zaman)



 
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