24.05.2013 09:44
Everybody has more or less the same feeling.
Everybody has more or less the same feeling: Geneva II will be stillborn, just like its predecessor; at best, it will bring about a temporary truce -- if anything at all.
Michael Young of Lebanon's Daily Star summed it up perfectly in a recent article, lamenting the ostrich-like policies of US President Barack Obama's administration.
Young wrote: "The Americans have locked themselves into a situation where the pursuit of their stated objectives in Syria seriously risks undermining the interests of their allies, while Russia is under no obligation to surrender anything and will continue to supply arms to the Syrian government. Nor are Iran and Hezbollah a part of the process (and the US does not want them to be), so Hezbollah can continue attacking rebel-held areas in and around Homs, which will only strengthen the Russians' hand."
"Peace in Syria," he concluded, "is desirable, but not at any price. American miscalculations will further damage the Syrian opposition and give Syrian President Bashar al-Assad the means to use negotiations to impose his will on his depleted rivals and remain in office. Neither Russia nor Iran will challenge this. And with a short-sighted, risk-averse, amoral administration in Washington, D.C., they know they can get their way."
It is one of those historic moments where predictions of tragedy become so easy. Every day that passes brings the Bosnian conflict to mind and as we approach Geneva II next month, the fierce escalation on the Syrian battleground is nothing but an attempt by the Assad forces and the rebels to gain more ground in order to be able to negotiate from a stronger position.
Who has been winning so far?
In a yet another cunning move, Assad also engaged Hezbollah en masse. He was willing to raise the stakes even higher because whatever had been done by Syria in the way of challenging the American and Turkish red lines thus far has gone unanswered.
The German weekly Der Spiegel reported that Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) entirely reversed its view from last summer that Assad would fall by early 2013. In a recent secret meeting, BND head Gerhard Schindler informed a small group of politicians that the Syrian regime is stronger than ever and is capable of crucial advances against rebels.
"Assad's troops once again possess effective supply lines to ensure sufficient quantities of weapons. Fuel supplies for tanks and military aircraft are once again available. The new situation allows Assad's troops to combat spontaneous rebel attacks and even retake positions that were previously lost. The BND does not believe that Assad's military is strong enough to defeat the rebels, but it can do enough to improve its position in the current stalemate," Der Spiegel reported.
Meanwhile, the rebels are dismayed by US timidity over the provision of weapons. Gen. Salim Idriss, commander of the Supreme Military Council, reportedly received 35 tons of weapons from the Saudis recently, but the rebels still suffer severe shortages that make it difficult to hold their positions.
According to David Ignatius of The Washington Post, Idriss has asked the US to provide 700 tons of ammunition per week until June. Rebel sources told Ignatius that "Idriss believes it would be suicidal for any opposition leader to go to Geneva without a green light that Assad and his inner circle will be removed during the transition."
The required strategic balance is very hard to achieve at this point. Idriss, weak on ammunition, has not only Assad's forces but Hezbollah in the west and eventually the al-Nusra Front -- affiliated with al-Qaeda -- in the east, both well trained and determined. That is how complicated the overall Western hesitation on Syria has made the situation.
It cannot be more obvious that the clock is ticking in favor of Assad, but not just Assad. The lack of any bold or creative approach on the American side gives the winning hand to Russia, which has -- believe it or not -- found good ground to take revenge for Libya and bring back features of the Cold War.
One cannot say that the current state of affairs has caught the Americans unguarded. However, America's is a costly stand: The vulnerabilities of Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan increase day by day.
For all the cynics, this is the moment it becomes clear: It's time to invest in Geneva V or Geneva XV.
YAVUZ BAYDAR (Cihan/Today's Zaman)