Angela Merkel's Turkey Test

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is the most powerful woman in the world. She has been the chancellor of Germany for ten years.

She is a successful politician. Merkel's Germany is a country where the economy has grown and welfare and inner peace deepen, while Europe was being shaken by the global economic crisis. However, Mrs. Merkel is now facing Syrian refugees as the third biggest crisis in her political life, after nuclear energy and Greece. She is under pressure, being questioned by her own party the Christian Democrats. The conservatives don't like her attitude supporting the spirit of the Geneva Convention, which doesn't regard the idea of an “upper limit” of refugees with favor. She has to present a realistic and successful policy that embraces the Christian Democrats. Mrs. Merkel sees Turkey as the key to solve the issue of Syrian refugees and she's not wrong. She's in the right place, but Turkey backs the wrong horse.

By the EU-Turkey summit, she appears to be using the right key on the right door in regards to the refugees that are currently under the initiative of Berlin. Today, the first “summit” will be held since membership negotiations with Turkey started. EU leaders have met with Russia in a “summit” over 20 times in the last a few years, hosted Putin in Brussels despite all the problems and have been hosted by Putin. While countries such as Korea and Mexico were hosted at summits, the door of these “summits” was closed for the “candidate” county Turkey. It's meaningful that the same door former French President Nicolas Sarkozy closed, Merkel has opened.

This summit's agenda is obvious: Syrian refugees. After the Paris attacks, this is not just a social issue, it is one to be discussed from the perspective of security. There's also an agreement signed between the EU and Turkey that regulates this issue. The EU wants to provide financial support for Turkey, which carries the heaviest part of the Syrian refugee burden. They expect refugees to stay in Turkey, and to not march toward the EU borders.

It's not possible for Chancellor Merkel to win over countries like Hungary and Poland on the refugee front. But she might win over Turkey. If she brings back some energy to the ongoing accession talks with Turkey, and backs the membership perspective for Ankara, she will have not only found the right keys in both Ankara and Brussels, but will have used the right door as well. Whether Merkel will end up showing off her “capacity for learning” when it comes to possible Turkish EU membership -- something she is known not to look warmly upon -- as she did when it came to nuclear energy is an unknown factor yet. But the agreements made so far keep this door open for her. With the EU accession process, Turkey had achieved stability, domestic peace and economic growth. For awhile, it was symbol of stability in the Middle East. It might well be once again. As for the EU, it appealed to Turkey because of the Copenhagen Criteria, because of democratization and because of the concept of state of law. Just as the accession process had the ability to change Turkey, it had the potential to deeply affect the entire Middle East. And this could all happen again.

We are now watching as the second piece of news comes in, showing us that Merkel is using the key on the right door. There is talk of a “mini summit” in coming days in Berlin, where Ankara, Athens and Berlin will meet and talk. As you know, one of the most difficult roadblocks in Turkish-EU relations is rooted in Athens and Cyprus. The Berlin wall has fallen, but the Nicosia wall remains. Without the Nicosia wall finally coming down, it will be very difficult for Turkey to make strides on the EU front. For the two Cypriot presidents who have devoted themselves to finding a solution on that island, eastern-German rooted Merkel is an important act and opportunity. It could well be that in the coming months, if the Cyprus problem is transcended, the greatest barrier impeding progress in Turkish-EU relations would be lifted.

If, however, Ms.Merkel really doesn't believe at all in Turkey's EU accession -- or thinks that by paying out a bit more money to the AKP actors she opposes, the whole refugee matter will be solved -- then she's wrong. She might find a temporary solution, but not a permanent one.

Willy Brand went down in history for his Spainish policies and European history. With her mission in regards to Turkey's democracy, Chancellor Merkel may well go down in history as having solved the Cyprus crisis. The EU appeals to millions in Turkey for its promises of democracy. There are those in the ranks of the AKP that see Turkey's future in the EU. But not those in the Palace. Merkel could open up the door to continuing accession talks in Brussels, and if she heads to the right address in Ankara, it could work. The gold-covered kitchy armchairs are not the right address; but those more modest art deco style ones are quite beautiful.

Ali Yurttagül (Cihan/Today's Zaman)