Back To The Future?

Events have unfolded at a dizzying pace in the past week since the devastating bomb attack in Suruç that cost the lives of over 30 young people and wounded dozens of others. In the aftermath of the attack, the Turkish government finally joined the international coalition against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levent (ISIS) and it made the decision, long awaited in Western capitals, to allow the İncirlik airbase to be used for airstrikes against ISIS.
Turkey's interests and those of the Western alliance now converge on key aspects. As a reward for its cooperation, Ankara appears to have been given a de facto no-fly zone along part of its border, denied to both the ISIL militants and the Syrian Kurds.
But while Ankara's interests overlap with those of its NATO allies in some respects, the government's priorities may lie elsewhere. The policy reversal also allows the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), still alone in the driving seat in spite of the electoral setback it suffered in June, to turn against those it sees at its main opponents. The government is bombing Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) bases in northern Iraq, while also waging a political war on the domestic front, arresting hundreds of ISIS, PKK, Revolutionary People's Party/Front (DHKP/C) members and launched daily verbal attacks against the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).
The government's decision not to include the HDP in its briefings to opposition parties in effect disenfranchises the 6 million voters who supported this party. Already, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli and AK Party Deputy Chairman Mustafa Şentop have raised the possibility of closing down the HDP.
For anyone who has lived through the turbulent 1990s, a period marked by endless bloodshed, hate speech and human rights violations, this is beginning to feel like déjà vu. The outcome of the general election and the more balanced parliamentary picture that emerged briefly raised hopes that Turkey would move toward a more inclusive form of governance.
Having covered a succession of coalition governments and the conflict in the Southeast in the 1990s, I had some doubts about the possibility of a smooth transition. It has been easy to forget in recent years that Turkish politics suffered serious dysfunctions, in different forms, before the AK Party came to power.
My concerns were further heightened during a trip to Şanlıurfa province in mid-June. I visited Akçakale just as refugees were streaming in from Tel Abyad. I was struck by the level of anti-Kurdish sentiment in the area: Some people were wary of the Syrian Kurds' successes across the border; others raged against the HDP for denying the AK Party another term as a single-party government.
The tough official rhetoric against the HDP over the past few months, the attacks that have caused outrage in the Southeast and elsewhere in the country, as well as the senseless killing of soldiers and police officers by the PKK in recent days have created a volatile environment at a time when Turkey is also increasingly vulnerable to attacks by ISIS supporters on the domestic front.
As the authorities tighten their control over social media and the press -- Milliyet columnist Kadri Gürsel just joined a long list of commentators who lost their jobs -- Turkey appears on a dangerous path. With two fractured countries as neighbors, a multitude of regional players, new actors like ISIS, Turkey faces a regional chaos that makes the situation more volatile and difficult to control. Past anchors like the EU, which acted as a restraint and an incentive to improve democratic standards, no longer exert enough influence to prevent further backslide. The peace process launched two years ago, flawed and unsatisfactory as it was, nevertheless kept the hope alive that peace would eventually prevail. The brakes appear to have come off.
Turkey urgently needs a coalition government that better reflects the political balances in the country, takes steps to de-escalate the domestic situation and clearly retargets the country's foreign policy. The events of the past few days will, however, make it harder for the AK Party and the Republican People's Party (CHP) to come together.
Aside from the devastating human cost, it is worth remembering that the 1990s were also a period of political and economic instability, marked by low foreign investment, financial crises and economic stagnation. Not a recipe for the successful Turkey that was advertised in electoral brochures.

NICOLE POPE (Cihan/Today's Zaman)