Could There Be An Alternative To Erdoğan?

Since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's victory in the local elections, many political analysts have been arguing that he is guaranteed to be the next president of Turkey.

The fact that Erdoğan got 43 percent of the vote makes him the number one candidate for the presidency. It does not mean, however, that he is guaranteed to win the presidency.

Analyzing the local election results shows that 57 percent of the voters did not vote for Erdoğan -- not because they think the opposition would serve them better, but because most of them hate the prime minister.

All Turkish voters know that Justice and Development Party (AKP) mayors work better, serve better and know how to run municipalities better. Despite this plain reality, the majority of the people did not vote for Erdoğan.

That 43 percent voted for Erdoğan not because all of them love him but because they know that AKP mayors are more competent and don't want to see political instability that would affect their economic positions. Moreover, some of the AKP supporters voted for the AKP because they did not want to vote for the Republican People's Party (CHP) and there was no conservative alternative to the AKP.

In addition, the opposition advocated a fundamental change, while Erdoğan advocated the continuation of the existing political model.

It is a fact that Turkish voters are conservative not only in their religious and nationalist values but their everyday lives as well. For instance, they don't feel comfortable visiting new places for vacations or trying new food; they don't even like to change their barber.

They don't want to see change affect their comfort zone, meaning their everyday lives; unless they see a real possibility, they won't even change jobs to make more money.

It seems that Turks are the only people who work only one job their entire life, and then retire.

Against this social backdrop, Erdoğan and the AKP advocated conserving what people have and presented choosing any alternative as a risky decision that would lead Turkey into chaos.

In order to preserve their conservative comfort zone, 43 percent of the people did not bother to take into consideration that Erdoğan shut down Twitter and YouTube. Because most of those 43 percent don't use social media often, shutting down Twitter and YouTube did not directly affect their everyday life. That is why they still voted for Erdoğan. That also shows that until their personal lives are directly affected, Turkish people don't care about issues that affect others.

All in all, the election results indicate that 43 percent of the people voted for Erdoğan for conservative reasons.

For the presidential election, Erdoğan argues that he will change the parliamentary system into a presidential system. Therefore he represents change in this election.

A conservative candidate who speaks the language of ordinary people, who represents conservative values, including the preservation of the existing parliamentary system -- she or he would be a real alternative to Erdoğan.

It is a fact that Erdoğan reached his maximum support in the local election; he needs to establish a coalition, perhaps with the Kurds, to close the remaining 6 percent gap.

In order to mobilize Turkish nationalist voters against Erdoğan's AKP-PKK coalition, the potential contender should have a nationalist background.

I don't know whether the political game in Ankara will give them a chance or not, but there are potential candidates who could be a real alternative to Erdoğan and have chance to win against him.

EMRE USLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman)