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Erdoğan Hints At Gas Supply Change After Russian Air Space Incursions

08.10.2015 18:07

Set against the still lingering fallout from Russian violations of Turkish air space over the weekend, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has warned Russia, saying that Turkey could import more of its natural gas and oil supplies from elsewhere.

Set against the still lingering fallout from Russian violations of Turkish air space over the weekend, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has warned Russia, saying that Turkey could import more of its natural gas and oil supplies from elsewhere.
He also said other countries could build Turkey's nuclear power plant.
Speaking to reporters onboard a flight to a state trip to Japan on Wednesday, Erdoğan updated reporters on the diplomatic crisis sparked by Russia's incursion into Turkish air space when a Russian warplane twice entered Turkey over the weekend as its air force carried out multiple air strikes in Syria.
Turkey scrambled F-16 fighter jets to intercept the plane, and the military reported other incidents earlier this week. Turkish aircraft were harassed by Syrian-based missile systems.
"We can't accept the current situation. Russia's explanations on the air space violations are not convincing," Erdoğan told reporters.
Russian military intervention severely jeopardized Turkey's long-sought proposal for the creation of a no-fly, or safe zone, in northern Syria, and is set to swing the pendulum on the ground in military terms in favor of beleaguered forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Designed to shore up the regime, the air strikes also provided a new lifeline for Assad whose removal is set as a precondition by many countries involved in the intractable conflict to end the four-and-a-half-year civil war.
The world is divided over the future of Assad, with the US, the UK, France, Saudi Arabia and Turkey adamantly pressing for the removal of the Syrian president before what they hope would be a political settlement of the crisis through a transition period. But Russia unflinchingly rejects such calls and is staunchly determined to keep him in power.
Despite Erdoğan's threat to shift its gas supplier, in reality there are few options that Turkey could seriously consider in the face of its dependency on Russia for its energy needs.
Russia is Turkey's largest natural gas supplier, with Ankara buying 28-30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of its 50 bcm natural gas needs annually from Russia. Other major suppliers are Iran and Azerbaijan, with a small amount planned to come from Turkmenistan.
Turkey commissioned Russia's state-owned Rosatom in 2013 to build four 1,200-megawatt reactors in a project worth $20 billion, although a building start date for what would be Turkey's first nuclear power plant has not yet been set.
Erdoğan said he resents Russia's intervention in Syria, which Turkey sees as its own backyard, but does not have any current plans to speak to President Vladimir Putin.
"These are matters for Russia to think about. If the Russians don't build the Akkuyu [nuclear plant], another will come and build it," he was quoted as saying. "We are Russia's number one natural gas consumer. Losing Turkey would be a serious loss for Russia. If necessary, Turkey can get its natural gas from many different places."
There was no immediate reaction to his comments from Moscow.
‘Not realistic'

The inflexible nature of gas importation infrastructure means shifting from one supplier to another is not straightforward. Turkey imports Russian gas primarily through two pipelines, one passing through the northwestern region of Thrace, the other entering Turkey from under the Black Sea.
"Erdoğan's statements on gas are not realistic at all. Turkey is dependent on Russia in the short and medium terms," said one private sector gas official.
"No gas entry from Thrace means the end of Turkey as that gas pipeline feeds all of İstanbul and the Marmara region. There is no alternative pipeline system that can bring this gas."
Turkey could look to boost purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Nigeria and Algeria to plug a potential gas shortage, although that would be a costly option for a country whose annual energy imports bill already exceeds $50 billion.
It is already looking to increase gas imports from Turkmenistan, currently a marginal supplier, but energy analysts say Russia has blocked such moves. Erdoğan is due to visit Turkmenistan on Monday.
The Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), in which Turkey has a 30 percent stake, is expected to bring Turkey 6 bcm of Azeri gas but only after mid-2018 when the pipeline becomes operational.
Turkey's surplus in electricity generation means it can afford to live without a nuclear power plant for several years to come.
"Turkey is not dependent on nuclear energy right now," a Turkish energy official said. "There is an overcapacity in power right now, which will continue until 2020… So if the nuclear plant is not built right away, that won't create a problem.”
Turkey says no plans for joint committee to avoid conflict in air

After the Russian Ministry of Defense said on Tuesday that Turkish officials proposed a joint meeting to avoid further violations of its air space and possible conflicts in the air, Turkey's Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül denied any such proposal.
He said on Thursday that Turkey has not suggested a committee that could work out how to "de-conflict" in the air, but that it only demanded an explanation from Moscow over its violation of Turkish air space.

(Cihan/Today's Zaman)



 
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