Erdoğan's Escape Plan

Erdoğan's presidential campaign is faltering. The basic strategy he laid out in the beginning of the campaign lies in diametric opposition to things he says today. When he first set out, Erdogan proposed to bring a new, de facto presidential system to Turkey. His enormous campaign was plotted around this idea.

Today, though, he appears to be conceding to the more limited presidential authorities as laid out in the Constitution; in keeping with this, it appears he is simply biding time with a correspondingly more modest campaign. And the reason? We need look no further than the wear and tear that his leadership has taken on, more so than in the actual balances of this election.

Erdoğan is a pragmatic leader. The secret to his success can be found in his extraordinary ability to conform to the conditions as he finds them. He saw that an overly assertive and ambitious campaign would actually work against him, and he decided to scale down the messages he was sending to the public. It is clear that his hesitation arises from worries over possible results from the ballot boxes. The fact is, Erdoğan is simply not sure about what the results might be, which is why he is now constantly fiddling and fine-tuning his giant propaganda machine.

In Turkey, politics is played out according to very negative factors. The truth is, someone who has already served 12 years as prime minister ought not to be such an attractive candidate for the office of president. There is not really that much to be gained from Erdoğan becoming president. But if he doesn't become president, he stands to lose a lot. And it is precisely all the prestige and protocol connected with the office of president in Turkey that pushes Erdogan to want to ascend to that status. It is the negativity surrounding the idea of not achieving all this prestige and protocol that drives him. The real issue facing Erdoğan is that he can no longer remain prime minister; it is not the ascension to the presidency that worries him so much. In short, Erdoğan is obliged to escape from the corruption investigation which began on Dec. 17. And where is the best spot from which to defend himself? For how much longer can he wield all those effective weapons that come with the prime ministry? Is the office of president safe from interventions from on high in Ankara? The real reason for the late announcement of his candidacy for office of president, and for his insistence on a “de facto presidential system” is this search by Erdogan for security.

It is very difficult to engage in speculation today as to what the results to the coming elections might be. There is a strong chance that everything will go topsy-turvy in the last two weeks before the elections. The announcement from the Grand Unity Party (BBP) that it would be supporting Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu triggered a series of sharp reactions from Erdogan; some of these reactions were borderline direct insults. The BBP possesses, at the most, a voter base of around 2 percent of the total electorate.

The priority in Erdoğan's general strategy has been the witch hunt he has headed against the Hizmet movement. It is said by some that he is more worried about the results of the September Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) elections than he is about the presidential election results. The refrain we heard from Erdoğan at his weekend election rally in Ordu concerning the “justice process unfolding against the Hizmet movement” was no different than his refrain that we have seen and heard over the past seven months. He speaks as though he were a prosecutor, asserting that enough evidence has now been collected. And it is quite clear from the prime minister's words that the newly appointed criminal court system has been designed precisely for taking care of this business. But why would a politician, obliged as all are to try and get along as best he can with everyone during a critical pre-election period, be this insistent in maintaining a provocative and openly oppositional stance against such an important faction of society? All one needs to do is look at Erdogan's priorities in order to answer this vital question. Erdoğan needs to escape from the corruption investigation. While it might be possible to slow down the process and gain a little time, as in the case of the summary proceedings for the three government ministers that arrived in parliament, but this won't be possible forever.

While we may be aware that the office of the president is an escape route for Erdoğan, it in no way means we can be sure of the election results. There are still two weeks left; this is a long time to fight a rear-guard action.

MÜMTAZER TÜRKÖNE (Cihan/Today's Zaman)