Erdoğan's Turkey Running On Fumes

If only Turkey were blessed with rich hydrocarbon resources like those of Hugo Chavez's Venezuela, Vladimir Putin's Russia or Ayatollah Khomeini's Iran, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of his care-taker Ahmet Davutoğlu could have a real shot in their aggressive pursuit of transforming this progressive country into a perpetual home for political Islamist zealots.
Perhaps that is a blessing rather than a curse by itself because the absence of oil and natural gas proceeds thwarted Erdoğan's attempts to implement his obscure understanding of a vision of democracy for Turkey. Thanks to the requirement that Turkey needs trade, business and investment, the economic policy-making process has not yet totally become subordinate to political objectives, although there are clear signs of many economic and financial policies that were simply devised to serve the political masters of the Erdoğan regime.
The financial challenges and economic impediments the country has been facing ranging from a high current account deficit (CAD) and a reliance on export markets to a dependence on continuous foreign investments and transfer of technology and know-how still require Turkey to maintain strong links with the world. As a result, the economic realities of Turkey never gave much room for hate-mongering political Islamists to implement their petty social engineering project that may very well cut off the Turkish economy from the rest of the world if not confronted.
The successive Turkish governments have come to understand that they needed to keep engaged with the regional and global economic partners in order to keep the Turkish economy afloat by luring investors, and find opportunities in new export markets. Even when the military was the absolute ruler in the military-coup eras, they had no choice but to entrust the economic management of the country into the hands of a qualified team of people in order to avoid being blamed for the fallout of economic crises.
Nevertheless, political Islamists sometimes found it hard to resist the temptation of exploiting economic policies in order to enrich themselves as well as boost their ideological base so that they can remain in power with the patronage system. This endeavor seems to have picked up speed since 2011 when political Islamists effectively seized power in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government by marginalizing various factions such as moderate conservatives, nationalists, liberals and social democrat wings within the party.
Naturally, that shift in the ruling party and the government led to the rise of political risks for Turkey as simmering disputes among factions raised the specter of splits among disenfranchised groups. The continued internal cohesion of the ruling party is essential for Erdoğan to survive politically. Now that unity is at greater peril with the apparent disagreements among at least four major factions within the ruling party. Added to that, the growing rift between Erdoğan and Davutoğlu will likely burst into the open eventually. It looks like the fight for more power and influence before the elections next year among political factions will feed further feuds within the ruling party camp.
In the meantime, the government will not stop from working on a legal framework in order to help accelerate the political Islamist project that has nothing to do with the religion of Islam itself but rather a vast patronage system that curries favor with loyalists who exploit religion for its symbolic value. Erdoğan and his allies in the government will increasingly abuse state powers to deter political and social dissidence by adopting harsher measures to bring the cost of opposition to unbearable levels both on personal, family and group levels. On the other hand, they will take measures to benefit their support base and protect them from economic challenges.
The effort to gain control over political, economic and social groups that are not yet under the control of the government will continue unabated, creating more tension and hampering efficiency and productivity. The nationalization of the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEİK) overnight with a last-minute change in the bill in Parliament was in fact part of that plan by the government. But taking over the control of DEİK has neutered this important economic body that used to help improve bilateral economic ties with Turkey's trading partners by incorporating private businesses.
Turkey will see more of that as political Islamists try to dominate labor unions, business groups, media outlets, religious groups and nongovernmental organizations that have not yet fallen into the hands of the government. The popular Muslim scholar Fethullah Gülen and his education-savvy Hizmet movement, which remain defiant against such an incursion despite threats, pressure and a campaign of intimidation, represents perhaps the single most important "litmus test" challenge to the Erdoğan regime. Gülen, who refused to be silenced over corruption, favoritism and nepotism in the government and is very much opposed to exploiting religion for political purposes, has become Erdoğan's number one enemy.
The smear campaign and witch hunt against members of Hizmet as well as others who do not support Erdoğan's political Islamist vision will continue with the hope that they will also give up on Turkish democracy. All these were aimed at sustaining the power for political Islamists in the upcoming elections. Yet this excruciatingly painful authoritarian experiment will deal a big blow to the economy. It threatened the social fabric of Turkey when it employed a highly divisive discourse and stigmatizing language. Turkey is a large country that cannot simply be governed by ruling out all the stakeholders from the consultation process during the policy-making processes.
The time is also not on the side of the government either. The upcoming national elections due next year will make it very difficult for the government to deal with the root causes as it needs to deliver immediate short-term results to gain favor with the voters ahead of elections. Therefore, Turks will witness campaigns that will portray the government appearing to be battling the problems without actually addressing their origins in any comprehensive strategy and systemic way of thinking.
As if that were not enough trouble for Turkey, the ill-devised project of transforming Turkey into a regional hub for political Islamists has already taken the country down a dangerous slope of international isolation with meddlesome foreign policy choices. The poor support Turkey received in the race for a non-permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council last week was a testament to that bitter fact. However, that will hardly dissuade Erdoğan and his allies from bashing Turkey's partners and allies to gain a few political points back at home. As usual, Erdoğan and the like-minded politicians in the government will seek to exploit clashes and confrontations in foreign policy to fire up core supporters.
For now, the Erdoğan regime is being helped by the continued disarray of the political opposition with its lack of effective leadership and a well-articulated, alternative and attractive vision for the nation. Despite the failure of the opposition to capitalize on major weaknesses of the ruling party, the support for Erdoğan and his allies in the government continues to fall, indicating troubled waters ahead. Keeping the majority that will be enough to establish another single party government for the AKP in the next elections is in serious jeopardy.
Erdoğan and his allies realize the winning ticket to power is the economy, which now poses a significant political challenge to their rule given the constraints in the national and international economic outlook. They know the country will soon run on fumes if they keep disturbing principles of open market economy in Turkey.
Yet the temptation to redesign the economy for the benefit of their political patrons, interfering in the judiciary with politically motivated criminal proceedings to go after critics and opponents and exerting more pressure on the media, business community and civil society groups to force them into their hands is irresistible to political Islamist zealots.
The false sense of impunity, unaccountability and untouchability among emboldened politicians will eventually seal the fate of the ruling party when problems are exacerbated to the point where it will no longer be possible to rectify them.

ABDULLAH BOZKURT (Cihan/Today's Zaman)