Erdoğan Weighed Down By Own Troubles

The doomsday scenario for Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) seems to have been precipitated by the move of President-elect Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to the presidency, as he is trying to appoint a caretaker loyalist to lead the governing party, which was been effectively seized by a pro-Iranian faction.

There are signs that Erdoğan's plans for the next government may falter as resistance grows against his fait accompli decisions. The most serious indication of the trouble that is looming large for the embattled Erdoğan, who is escaping to the presidency to obtain a thicker wall of immunity against a mountain of legal troubles, was the hasty decision by the government to obtain a recess of Parliament. The AKP's parliamentary group, which had secured an extension of the work in Parliament until Aug. 21 only a day earlier, suddenly reversed its position and asked for a recess until Oct. 1 in the middle of Wednesday night.

Why the rush, when Erdoğan himself saw the omnibus legislation currently being debated in the general assembly as the top priority for himself and his associates as it includes so many changes (some clearly unconstitutional) that could have made some of the legal troubles incriminating him and his associates go away when enacted? Erdoğan's concerns about the growing rift within the ruling party amid outgoing President Abdullah Gül's open challenge to him clearly outweighed his desire to get this critical legislation enacted as soon as possible.

As long as Parliament was in session, his controversial position of holding the titles of president-elect, prime minister and party chair at the same time would have been debated in heated exchanges among deputies. The publication of official results by the election commission on Friday will certainly add further fuel to the debate, as the opposition claims that the Erdoğan government has effectively ended and the new government should be formed before any legislative work on draft bills can proceed.

In Erdoğan's mind, there was another concern as well. Last week, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) formally submitted a censure motion against Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu over the failure to evacuate diplomatic staff and their families from the Turkish consulate in Mosul, Iraq, thereby allowing them to be kidnapped on June 11 by the “Islamic State” (IS), formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The CHP accuses Davutoğlu of “degrading Turkey's prestige in both the regional and international arenas, leading Turkish foreign policy into a dead end, dragging the country into a war-like atmosphere and facilitating the activities of international terrorist organizations in almost every city of Turkey.”

This is the fifth censure motion against Davutoğlu, whom Erdoğan is thinking of placing as his successor after he moves to the presidential office. There is simply no chance for Davutoğlu, an academic-turned-diplomat, to become chairman of the party unless Erdoğan puts his full weight behind him. He does not have the grassroots support either, and he was considered a newcomer who was parachuted in by Erdoğan after serving his aide. He is not liked by many within the ruling party, as he is seen as the man responsible for colossal failures on the foreign policy front.

With Gül, who reportedly ceased talking to Davutoğlu some time ago, taking a strong position against Davutoğlu's candidacy and enlisting the support of other heavyweights in the ruling party, such as Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç, Erdoğan must have thought the censure motion against Davutoğlu might be approved in the assembly. According to the rules of Parliament, a simple majority within the quorum is required for a censure motion to be placed on the agenda. Rumor has it that many AKP deputies would not have shown up to vote, leaving the opposition to claim a majority in the initial vote. This would be a major blow to Davutoğlu, who survived the previous four censure motions with the votes of deputies from the ruling party.

Why does Erdoğan want a low-caliber man such as Davutoğlu, who is despised by many deputies from his own party? According to polling company MetroPOLL's surveys, the public increasingly sees the country's foreign policy as a failure. In a 2011 poll, only 18.5 percent saw the country's foreign policy as a failure. That increased to 28.2 percent in 2012 and 46.8 percent in 2013. The last available data were reported in June of 2014, and the number reached 51.2 percent. Davutoğlu's reputation in international diplomatic circles is also very bad. There are several reasons: For one, Davutoğlu must be loyal to Erdoğan, because he has no other base to rely on in order to survive. Secondly, he will be a lame duck prime minister, as he has no success to boast of in his record.

Thirdly, most of Turkey's controversial policies in the Middle East involved the mind of Davutoğlu, which will place him second after Erdoğan in the case that the allegations of Turkey having played a role in helping extremist groups in Syria and Iraq is sorted out in a court of law. The leaked audio recording of a high-level meeting on Syria in March, which involved top Turkish officials, including a deputy chief of the General Staff, reveals how Davutoğlu played a role in planning a false flag operation outside Turkish borders.

Another reason is that Erdoğan thinks he can easily plant loyalists around Davutoğlu to control his every move. Most members of the Cabinet, if not all, will be hand-picked by Erdoğan for the simple purpose of defending him against criminal investigations that may land him in hot water. Particularly the people who will be brought to head key Cabinet positions, such as the ministries of justice, the interior, foreign affairs and transportation, will have to be 100 percent loyal to maintain the game that Erdoğan set up to watch his back against the background of legal troubles.

It is quite telling how Erdoğan drastically shifted his position when he first considered running for president in 2007. To refresh our memories, let's take a look at what he said when he was considered the front-running presidential candidate back then. In April of 2007, he told reporters that a person who is elected president must not look back. “That is how it should be. I'll go further than that. Let them say the leader is dead,” he was quoted as saying by newspapers.

Recalling past Presidents Turgut Özal and Süleyman Demirel, who were both sidelined after leaving their positions as prime minister and chairman of the ruling party, Erdoğan said: “That is unavoidable. When you leave for Çankaya [presidential palace], your political identity is history. You're now the head of the state. You have to protect that.” He also underlined that when the late president Özal tried to control the ruling party, problems emerged. “Whoever comes as a successor must fully own the party and take it forward,” Erdoğan said in April.

Erdoğan's ambitions were thwarted when the powerful generals back then put pressure on him to withdraw his name and nominate then-Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül, to which Erdoğan agreed. Arınç came out and spoiled that deal; however, when he insisted on the nomination of Gül. Today the same duo (Gül and Arınç) might spoil Erdoğan's plans for a post-election design for the ruling party as well.

It is unavoidable that Erdoğan will become isolated in the presidential office and share the same fate as past presidents. He may think he is more powerful than the others, and the conjuncture is not the same as it was in the '80s and '90s, during which time the military was so much more powerful. Perhaps that is true. But neither Özal nor Demirel was involved in any sort of massive and unprecedented graft scandal that had regional and international implications from terror-financing to money-laundering activities.

I think Erdoğan sees this gloomy picture for his future as well, and that is why he is still angry and can't drop his harsh and abusive language, despite the presidential election victory. He cannot reach out to embrace everybody and mend fences with Turkey's allies and partners instead of bashing them. He needs polarization, imaginary enemies to fight and crises so that the debate will not focus on his own legal troubles. He may have been elected head of state, but his personal interests are an ocean apart from the national and state interests. For that reason, he won't be able to sustain his rule for long.

ABDULLAH BOZKURT (Cihan/Today's Zaman)