Erdoğan Won, But He Is Still Nervous

What happens next with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)? The turmoil this question has been generating for some time within the party will not end when our President-elect Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announces Ahmet Davutoğlu as the prime minister who will work in "perfect harmony" with him.
Apparently, the contention between the "up-and-coming youngsters" (to borrow a phrase from deputy Bülent Arınç), who can be readily labeled as "Erdoğanist," and the party's "elders" can no longer be concealed from the public, and this strife is likely to continue until 2015 in connection with Abdullah Gül's efforts to secure the party leadership.
Therefore, Erdoğan's primary occupation as president will consist of diligently managing and administering his party in a state of emergency until the parliamentary elections slated for June 2015. He will act as the head of a presidential system, not caring about such "trivialities" as the Constitution, laws or regulations and justifying his arbitrary acts. Meanwhile, the contention between the elders, who will apparently band together around Gül, and the novices will continue to simmer, but we will see them make peace, as they will be thinking, "We must stick together until the elections." Therefore, I believe it is futile to expect Gül to make the "leadership" move in the short run.
The graft and bribery investigations of Dec. 17 and 25, 2013, however, have the potential to make an impact on the process. Indeed, despite Erdoğan's efforts to protect four former Cabinet ministers who were implicated in these investigations, these probes are still under way. The prosecutor's summary proceedings which were sent to Parliament about these ministers must be dealt with. But perhaps the AKP will be clever enough to postpone the discussions until after the 2015 elections… It is not easy to cover up these files.
Of course, there are also developments which are linked with the operation of July 22. The police chiefs who conducted critical operations in "close cooperation" with the ruling party in the past will not accept the current treatment the ruling party is giving to them and they may defend themselves. Indeed, there are serious charges leveled against them, such as "espionage." The ruling party felt obliged to conduct these operations because Erdoğan had promised to "enter their dens." What if the facts these people will disclose to defend themselves strike the ruling party like a boomerang?
If this happens, the members of the AKP who are not directly linked with corrupt practices may choose not to wait for the 2015 elections before taking action. Remember, deputy Erdoğan Bayraktar, before he resigned from office, said, "I didn't do anything without the knowledge of the prime minister; he, too, should resign from office in order to save the country from problems." Of course, I know he later apologized for this statement. But it is possible he won't say, "I use my right to remain silent," when he defends himself at the Supreme State Council… This is why the upcoming 10 months will be rather "hot." It does not seem very likely that Erdoğan and the AKP will be able to prepare for next year's elections comfortably.
It is very obvious that Erdoğan will keep his promise of "not being like previous presidents." He will try to preside over all Cabinet meetings and convene the Cabinet at will. He will form a "shadow cabinet" at the Çankaya presidential palace, turning the government into a council that implements his decisions. He will sidestep the state hierarchy and give direct instructions to bureaucrats. But none of these will guarantee the complete suspension of rule of law and justice.
This fact must increasingly be bothering Erdoğan because he has grown even more uneasy even though he won the presidential election.
I don't know if Erdoğan and his cronies know this, but only a small group of Erdoğan's supporters will continue to vote for him blindly. Thus, the support Erdoğan mustered during the election with an extraordinary performance and willfully using public resources may quickly be reversed. There are many examples of such reversals in Turkey's history.

CAFER SOLGUN (Cihan/Today's Zaman)