Game Is Over

Russia's persistent violation of Turkish airspace along the Syrian border in the past couple of days, harassing fighter jets, has the potential to turn into a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO member Turkey.
Furthermore, Turkey appears to have been pressed by the Russian-backed regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a surface-to-air missile system based in Syria locked radar on Turkish warplanes on Oct. 4 while eight F-16 jets were on a patrol flight along the Syrian border.
Russia's recent direct military involvement in Syria's almost four-and-a-half-year-long civil war to bolster the Assad regime's power against opposition groups, among other things, has not only complicated the prolonged war in this country but also the US-backed coalition forces' ongoing air strikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
In addition to the risk of Russia and Turkey engaging in a direct military confrontation due to the former's persistent violations of Turkish airspace, Moscow's increased military activity in Syria could fuel the adverse effects Syria's security situation has on Turkey.
Ankara and Moscow have deep disagreements regarding Syria policy. Turkey, a longtime opponent of Assad, has been supporting opposition groups like the radical al-Nusra Front, while Russia would like to see Assad stay in power.
On Oct. 6, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned that Turkey will not remain patient in the face of these violations. Moreover, he challenged Russia, on his way to Japan on Oct. 8, with a warning that Turkey's first nuclear power plant, to be built by Russia in Akkuyu in the southern province of Mersin, can be given to another country.
Still, Turkey is highly dependent on Russia's energy resources, with 55 percent of its natural gas consumption and 30 percent of its oil needs being met by the country. One cannot rule out the possibility that Moscow might use Turkey's reliance on Russian energy sources as a tool to raise the stakes against Turkey in Syria.
In fact, regardless of warnings coming from both Turkey and its NATO ally, Russia has been escalating tensions as it continued to violate Turkish airspace on Oct. 7, clearly challenging both.
One would then think that the Russians are making it very clear to Turkey and NATO that they are unconcerned by any threats or warnings Ankara or NATO may issue.
Flying close to the border, entering Turkish airspace by “mistake,” or harrassing Turkish fighter jets are all aggressive acts. In fact, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the incidents appear to be “no accident,” calling the Russian airspace violations “unacceptable” during a press conference in Brussels on Oct. 6.
If Russia had wanted to calm the situation down, it would have implemented a no-fly zone along the Syrian-Turkish border and ordered Russian and Syrian pilots to stay out of that airspace. However, it appears that Russia has not done so.
Russia may be thinking that Assad, with its help, can recapture most of the country and come to an arrangement with Syrian Kurds that will lead to a federal system.
Up until now, the Syrian air force has only been able to put pressure on the opposition rather than defeat it, but the Russian air force is now hitting the Syrian opposition hard and morale is falling. ISIL, in the meantime, will be harder to beat because it is largely ideologically based, whereas the Syrian opposition only has a thin ideological motive.
It would not be surprising to see the Syrian regime and its supporters launch a surprise ground attack in some strategic locations to further demoralize the opposition. In fact, Russian warships in the Caspian Sea fired cruise missiles on Oct. 7, as Syrian government troops launched a ground offensive in central Syria, in the first major combined air-and-ground assault since Moscow began its military campaign in the country last week.
Perhaps a thrust towards the Turkish border -- imagine the reaction in Ankara if Syrian flags reappeared along the border -- will mean that the game is over for Turkey.

LALE KEMAL (Cihan/Today's Zaman)