Gül Is Chomping At The Bit

“The bell has rung” claimed a colleague known for his close contacts with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) yesterday. If his predictions are true, round two of Turkey's historically decisive election trilogy has already begun.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is hungry to become the first-ever elected president of the Turkish Republic and, with it, for more than whatever its constitutional powers may offer. That is the reason why he did not lose any time testing the grounds.

He assembled the party group and distributed a questionnaire that included key questions like “Who do you think should be the presidential nominee?”

Thirty deputies took to the floor. Except for two, all gave their “ayes” to Erdoğan as the next president. This will be followed by three more meetings within the AKP until mid-May. If Erdoğan feels that the go-ahead has been given, he will declare he is ready for the ring.

President Gül, co-founder of the AKP and the key actor in the turbulent 2007 spring and summer during which he stood firm in not giving up his presidential candidacy despite pleas by Erdoğan, knows that the upcoming election is about his future in active politics altogether.

Is Gül also as keen as Erdoğan to stay in active politics and have a say? Definitely. As the latter is busy scanning his party regarding his high ambitions, Gül has raised the stakes in being visible and audible on the matter.

He remarked that no one should take the presidency for granted and during a high-profile gathering under the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (TÜSİAD) on Wednesday, he went further and stated he is eyeing playing an active role in politics in a country whose democratization process remains unfinished.

And the verb “unfinished” does not really cut it anymore. What has happened since mid-December under the politics of rage of Erdoğan is that Turkey has reversed and due to some legislative moves and administrative sanctions around the rule of law, there is rising political debris -- which in and of itself has become a challenge for whoever wants to deal with it.

The AKP wants to see Erdoğan as the next president, that is certain. And, somewhat paradoxically, many who oppose Erdoğan agree. The latter seem to be counting on the optimism that the subsequent tensions in Turkey's politics may then ease off based on self-producing acrimony.

But the bell has only rung. If who becomes the next president of Turkey is of the outmost importance, so is the successor of Erdoğan, should he win in August.

The crux of the matter is that the two leaders have opposing views on the post- August work format of the prime minister. Erdoğan clearly wants -- and no doubt will demand -- submission. He would be eager to make sure the graft investigation and its allegations do not haunt him if he steps up to the plate. He has made it clear that he envisions a new type of superiority, unseen before, as president, stretching the limits of the Constitution and (mis)interpreting the clauses to chair Cabinet meetings.

Gül sees the opposite. It is obvious that if/when he gives up any prospect of being the presidential candidate, he will have to seek assurances from the AKP. With the AKP of today, Gül is seeing a mission unaccomplished in terms of Turkey staying at the thorny periphery of European values; he thinks reforms are the only way out of the dark tunnel so firmly extended by Erdoğan's team.

Gül will not accept the role of a meek, puppet-like prime minister. He may have lost considerable amount of points in popularity lately, but it now seems clear that he chose to lean on the process led by the Constitutional Court, which is now fiercely balancing the bills and bans. Whether one likes it or not, this is his way.

But, realistically speaking, Erdoğan has the advantage -- at least in the short term. Though somewhat bruised, he may use his skills to continue as prime minister.

It is Gül who facing bigger challenges. He will have to take the long road, seeking the support of the AKP, accepting meanwhile that an interim prime minister -- around Erdoğan's orbit -- will be chosen and wait to be elected to Parliament. If one hesitates to bet on him, it would be understandable.

YAVUZ BAYDAR (Cihan/Today's Zaman)