How Is The Peace Process Going?

Neither the government's policies nor the new strategies of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leadership negatively affected the peace process in Turkey; rather it is the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) attacks in Kobani that did. The mechanism is now fairly complicated; what complicated things is the US policy on ISIL. The roles, cards and calculations in the talks are changing swiftly because of the American intervention. The Democratic Union Party (PYD) organization in Syria is the PKK itself. The priority of Syria was a major reason for the PKK to make peace with the Turkish state and hold negotiations with it through PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
For the first time, the PKK acquired control across a vast area where it established its authority. They now need Turkey to regain their position. They strongly need logistical support from Turkey in Kobani and other Kurdish cantons in Syria. They have two tools to persuade Turkey: to threaten and/or convince. Via the violent protests that took place Oct. 6-7, the PKK threatened Turkey with mass violence; but it failed to get what it wanted. On the contrary, the PKK's image was seriously undermined in the eye of the public and they forced the Islamist-Kurdish groups to respond with violence.
The US, however, retained its position. The US held air strikes to counter the ISIL attacks; this relieved the PKK of that threat; and in addition, the US also extended arms support to the PYD fighters. This is quite important; but more importantly, these moves pushed Turkey into a corner. The US needs the local groups fighting against ISIL. Turkey, on the other hand, needs to be convinced to agree with the US on the role of the PKK in this conflict and the US policy against ISIL. Under these circumstances, the PKK is expected to play a role of “nice kid.” What goes along with this role would be keeping the settlement process moving forward. For this reason, the PKK's vague threats should not be taken seriously. The PKK will get out of this situation by grabbing the hand the US extended. In return, it is asked to get along with Turkey. The prime minister's move to convene the "wise men" should be read as a move to expand the sphere of this policy. Even though the president says otherwise, the statements by government members noting that the prison conditions of Öcalan will be improved should be viewed as attempts to keep control in this area. The prime minister is evidently willing to continue with the settlement process; but he also shows the same willingness in protecting the public order against the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK), which is seeking to maintain political control in the Southeast. The lengthy speech by the prime minister in the meeting of the wise men included some messages for the US. The most important message in the speech was the one suggesting that Turkey views the PYD in Kobani the same as the PKK in Turkey.
The domain of the settlement talks and negotiations is too narrow and restricted. But the PKK is experiencing hardship. It would be stupid for it to sabotage the process when it is in trouble in Syria. The initiative the government has developed over the last two weeks opens up the PKK to participate in discussions. The only thing it will have to do is to play the role of nice kid as defined by the US,
The PKK's real hardship stems from existential fundamentals. The PKK is a Marxist-Leninist organization; and the anti-American stance holds a special place in its ideology. The restrictions because of this ideological stance also restrict the political mechanism and maneuvers. It had to be pragmatic; but when it does so, it will have to take the risk of losing its own support base. This is how the settlement process is moving forward. The PKK is expected to make all the moves; there is no confusion, however, about what is happening where other actors are concerned.

MÜMTAZER TÜRKÖNE (Cihan/Today's Zaman)