ISIL, The Settlement Process And Turkey

Everything was going well. The Turks and Kurds were confronting their past; they were proud of the positive sides of this past and Turkish-Kurdish political relations were being taken to the next stage of the settlement process. Relations between Arbil and Ankara have played a determinative role in the reconstruction of Iraq in the aftermath of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, and bilateral relations between Arbil and Ankara have attracted a great deal of attention from Western countries as well.
Despite the objection of the US and the central Iraqi administration to the transportation of Kurdish oil to global markets, the agreement between Ankara and Arbil has moved forward. Within the settlement process, the withdrawal of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) from Turkish territory was once again being discussed and the conditions for a probable disarmament were being detailed. Then we woke up in the morning and realized that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) was at the doors to Arbil, trying to seize full control in the capital city of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
The two strong Kurdish groups, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the PKK/Democratic Union Party (PYD), which had serious disagreements found themselves fighting on the same front against ISIL. In sum, we have entered a new process, where old friends became foes and old foes became friends. Of course, ISIL is the main actor in the process. It is not just a terrorist organization but also a visible enemy of Kurds, Americans, Arabs, Turkmens, Yazidis and Assyrians.
How will Turkey administer this process? If Turkey, which has made heavy investments in the construction of Arbil since the 1990s, fails to extend the support the Kurds need to fight against ISIL -- and KRG Prime Minister Neçirvan Barzani has already announced that it has not -- how will the settlement process be influenced by this?
Kurds are the most active actor fighting against ISIL in Iraq and Syria. The presence of ISIL in Iraq and Syria will, of course, force the Kurds to maintain a stronger alliance with the West. Will the Kurds who align themselves with the West remain close to Turkey as well? These are pretty crucial questions that need to be asked.
After US President Barack Obama's action plan is launched, the Kurds will be the most active force in the fight to be conducted on the ground with US support. This is the de facto situation in Iraq. Turkey did not sign up for the action plan agreed upon in Saudi Arabia. Given the Turkish hostages being held by ISIL, we might believe that the world would understand this stance. But it is impossible to think that Turkey will remain completely indifferent to the action plan that includes intelligence gathering, an economic blockade, corridors for civilians escaping ISIL brutality and contributions to a land operation and ideological combat.
If Turkey fails to explain its stance to the Kurds, the settlement process and Turkish-Kurdish relations will be negatively affected.
Diminishing hopes for the settlement process and a cooling of bilateral relations between Arbil and Ankara will lead to emotional disruption and rifts that the 30-year armed struggle did not lead to. Turkey is facing a delicate and difficult choice now.
To overcome these hardships, Turkey, instead of remaining trapped between the ISIL and the West, should realize that the settlement process is a great opportunity, choose to make progress in this process and avoid the fatal mistake of postponing the opportunities of this progress until after the 2015 elections.

ORHAN MİROĞLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman)