No Choice But Coalition For MHP

One of the winners of the June 7 election was the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). It appealed especially to the conservative voters who disapproved of the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) corrupt practices and were looking for an alternative party. These groups were particularly uneasy with the AKP's uncompromising attitudes that generally undermined the smooth operation of the political system.
After the election, potential coalition scenarios became the main topic of discussion. A snap election is one of the strong possibilities. If a snap election is held soon, the MHP will be its primary loser.
Why will the MHP lose? First, the MHP betrayed the transitory support of conservative voters by paving the way for the election of the AKP's candidate as parliament speaker. Thus, it failed to keep the promises it made in the run-up to the election and emerged as the AKP's main supporter. Therefore, some of the voters who supported the MHP in reaction to the AKP's policies will stop backing the MHP.
Second, the general message of the June 7 election is that parties should seek a consensus. Detesting the AKP's uncompromising and dictatorial practices, voters urged opposition parties to form a coalition government. Accordingly, the party that refuses to form a coalition government will be punished by voters.
If a coalition government cannot be established, the MHP will be perceived as being solely responsible for this failure. This is because the MHP refuses to partner with other parties if the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) is involved. It also rejects formulas involving the AKP.
If an early election is held, all parties will point to the MHP as being the culprit behind the political crisis. This, in turn, will adversely affect the MHP's image in the eyes of voters.
The third and most important factor is the AKP's strategy regarding the MHP. The AKP seems to have realized that it has bled supporters to the MHP, particularly in Central Anatolian constituencies. Therefore, the AKP will be eager to attract those voters back to the party in an early election.
We know that the strategic shift of votes from the AKP to the MHP, particularly in Central Anatolian constituencies, is largely due to the Hizmet movement's call for its followers to support the second strongest party after the AKP. This call brought strategic votes to the MHP in Central Anatolia.
After the June 7 election, the MHP's attitude toward the Hizmet movement has not yet been clarified. If a snap election is held under these circumstances, there is no guarantee the Hizmet movement will lend its support to the MHP with the same strategy. Therefore, the MHP may lose many seats in Parliament.
For these three reasons, the MHP will not favor a snap election. The only exit strategy for the MHP is to provoke nationalistic sentiments and otherize the HDP, thereby earning the loyalty of its supporters.
It was precisely for this reason that the MHP's youth branches took to the streets to protest the persecution of Uighurs in China.
However, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli used to pride himself on keeping nationalists away from the streets. So why have nationalists started taking to the streets?
The answer is the possibility of the MHP sustaining great losses in an early election. There are two ways for the MHP to avoid those losses. The first is to provoke nationalist sentiments by becoming an active member of a “war Cabinet.” Indeed, Bahçeli argues Turkey should establish a buffer zone in Syria. He is speaking the same language as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The second is to attack the AKP via the settlement process, thereby luring nationalist voters to the MHP. The second option is very likely to happen, but it is the only one available for the MHP if a war does not erupt.
Seeing this possibility, the MHP is forcing the AKP to partner with the HDP in a coalition government. If this happens, the AKP will bleed its nationalist voters to the MHP. But the AKP is aware of this and is refraining from it.
In conclusion, there aren't many choices left for the MHP. In the event of a snap election, the MHP will face the risk of losing a significant portion of its supporters due to its attitude after the June 7 election. If the current situation persists, the MHP will work for the establishment of a coalition government instead of pushing for an early election. To put it more clearly: The MHP is now obliged to go with a coalition government in the face of the possibility of a snap election.

EMRE USLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman)