No End To The Ukraine-Russia War In Sight

The Ukraine-Russia war has already led to more than 5,000 deaths and caused the suffering of millions of innocent people. The continued repulsive torture, parading and brutal killing of Ukrainian soldiers by the Russian-backed separatists and mercenaries in the east of the country is a violation of international humanitarian law and should be considered a war crime.
The Minsk cease-fire agreement remains on paper alone. Russia has never adhered to it or the majority of conclusions coming from EU heads of state summits and meetings of foreign ministers. Out of the some 24 requests, Russia has only implemented four, and those only partially. Demands to de-escalate have been ignored; the border remains open with Russian military equipment and soldiers crossing back and forth. If Russia is serious about the commitments it signed up for, why is the border still open? Why is heavy military machinery moving across the border and around the Donbas? Why is Russia not condemning the inhumane actions of the separatists?
Since the Minsk agreement was signed Ukraine's territory has been further nibbled away. The response from the West has been two-fold: demanding de-escalation and trying to appease Russia with talk about sanction relief if Moscow adheres to the cease-fire agreement. In their efforts to find a solution that would help Vladimir Putin “save face,” they seem to have missed the point that he is not interested in saving face. He fully believes in his own convictions, aims and the Russian population supporting him.
Over the last few weeks there has been a significant upsurge in atrocities, with the separatists shelling a bus in Volnovakha, a bus stop in Donetsk, and the launch this past weekend of an offensive against the strategic port city of Mariupol, which left some 30 people dead and more than 100 wounded. Such efforts are almost certainly aimed at getting Kiev to agree to negotiations with the so-called leaders of occupied Donetsk and Luhansk.
Putin remains defiant. Speaking to students in St. Petersburg he claimed that Ukraine's leadership was to blame for the upsurge in violence, accusing it of using civilians as "cannon fodder" and claiming that Ukraine's army is a foreign NATO legion serving the goal of the geopolitical containment of Russia. Moscow, according to Putin, is a peace-maker. However, looking closely at his recent peace plan, at the core is Russia maintaining control over the Donbas “à la South Ossetia and Abkhazia.”
Today, both of these Georgian provinces are de facto parts of Russia. Putin never had any intention of allowing Ukraine a win in the Donbas. The Ukrainian military's celebration of taking the Donetsk airport was short-lived. Military equipment sitting across the Russian border was quickly deployed. First, the Donetsk airport was taken before moving to Mariupol, leaving Ukrainian soldiers encircled and vulnerable.
US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power hit the nail on the head when she said, “This offensive is made in Moscow. It is waged by Russian-funded and Russian-supported separatists who use Russian missiles and Russian tanks, and whose operations receive direct Russian assistance.”
Ukraine needs to accept the unhappy fact that it cannot retake the Donbas. It needs to concentrate on holding on to the rest of Ukraine because the separatists will push for more. They have no intention of freezing anything. While clearly there will be no foreign deployment of troops, members of the EU and NATO should provide arms to Ukraine to help it better defend itself.
EU foreign ministers will meet on Jan. 29. I hope that three days of relative calm will not be used as a reason to not consider new sanctions. Unfortunately, as Russia had hoped, cracks have appeared between member states, the latest example being the Polish agriculture minister accusing France of harming EU solidarity on Russia. Hence, we can expect a very tense meeting.
Germany is key. During a phone call with Putin over the weakened Chancellor Angela Merkel urged him to avoid further escalation of the conflict, to work towards the implementation of the Minsk Protocol and to put pressure on the separatists, but made no mention of further sanctions. While peace talks should continue at the same time, the EU needs to tighten sanctions, which is exactly what they threatened if Russia failed to comply with Minsk. Unfortunately, as things stand, there is a risk we may just hear more toothless words of concern, which will play further into Putin's hands.

AMANDA PAUL (Cihan/Today's Zaman)