No More An Island Of Serenity

This part of the world is bleeding.
Greece is in tatters with a punishing economic crisis. Ukraine is embattled by civil disorder perpetrated ostensibly by Russia. Syria is in a war in which no one knows exactly who is fighting whom. The Middle East is the same old witch's cauldron. Discouraged by slumping oil prices, Russia and Iran are also at odds with the mighty league of Westerners and thus face economic hurdles. Wedged between these problem-ridden areas, Turkey, once hailed as an island of peace and tranquility, is today wading through a mud of political ambiguities while its economic situation is getting worse by the day.
The impossibility of opposition parties reaching a compromise to cooperate and establish a coalition government manifested during the election of the parliament speaker on Wednesday, so now the possibility of an early election looks much closer to becoming a certainty. Already fogbound amid regional sources of ambiguities and global economic problems, the country is also eagerly attempting to rock its own boat. Taking into account the messages delivered by the political parties in Parliament, the chances are quite high that a coalition government is not very possible any more. Even if some of them somehow agree to walk together, they will certainly try to trip each other up and this interest-bound unity will be short-lived.
Will an early election solve anything? I would like to say yes but unfortunately the picture will not change positively. And this is stoking fears the most in the hearts of businessmen, who have been sounding clarion calls for political parties to immediately focus on the economy. The costs will be heavy.
Measures need to be taken as soon as possible to instill confidence in Turkish markets once again. The World Bank two days ago revised down its gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate estimates for Turkey from 3.7 percent to 3.5 percent for 2016 and 2017, attributing these to the possibility that the ambiguities will continue in the period ahead. Net capital outflow from Turkey has already surpassed $4.7 billion since the beginning of the year and unless the confidence is rebuilt, this will get worse.
I would also like to discuss the impacts that Greece's economic problems might have on Turkey. Crisis-plagued Greece is in a hornet's nest now. The country will vote for its fate in a plebiscite on Sunday. If the ballot outcome entails subjugating to the euro group's demands, which means Greece will wager its soul hoping for salvation, the Alexis Tsipras government will lose its legitimacy and the country will plunge into another Stygian sea of troubles. If the “nay” votes beat the number of yea-sayers, the exit door of the eurozone for Greece will open wide.
A recent survey suggested that the majority of Greeks are in favor of finding a solution under the guidance of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Still, a considerable number of people believe defying the common monetary policy and returning to a more competitive drachma will provide much-needed relief for the country, though not in the immediate future. The Greek tragedy will likely distress the “watcher” Turkish economy, though I don't believe Greece's demise will have any crippling direct impact on it. Turkey's trade with Greece is limited in volume and their economies are not actually interwoven. The scope of the interdependency between the “enemy brothers of the Aegean Sea” has always been narrow and thus the fire in Greece is not really causing any injuries to Turkey.
Tourism may be an issue, though. Turkey is losing visitors from Russia and Europe, as indicated by the latest figures. For instance, 2.6 percent less foreigners came to Turkey in May over the same month of the previous year. The biggest fall was in the number of visitors from Russia. The situation may get worse due to the perception of the rising threat of Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) terrorism spreading to Turkish soil and the recent rumors that Turkey may wage a cross-border operation into Syria to suppress the newly budding state-like formations in northern Syria alongside the Turkish border. Greece is growing as an alternative destination for typical visitors of Turkish resorts since they now can enjoy greater luxury with the same amount of cash in Greece.

İBRAHİM TÜRKMEN (Cihan/Today's Zaman)