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Only Temporary Reprieve For Turkey

22.10.2014 12:10

Over the last couple of days we have been witnessing some remarkable turning points in the fight to save the Syrian-Kurdish town of Kobani. Turkey's role especially seems to have changed considerably: from being a reluctant partner in the US-led coalition against the “Islamic State” (IS) and resisting.

Over the last couple of days we have been witnessing some remarkable turning points in the fight to save the Syrian-Kurdish town of Kobani. Turkey's role especially seems to have changed considerably: from being a reluctant partner in the US-led coalition against the “Islamic State” (IS) and resisting any military cooperation with Kurdish forces on the frontlines, to being a constructive teammate allowing much needed assistance to be delivered to the defenders of Kobani.
First, we saw the multiple drops near Kobani by the US air force, of arms, ammunition and medical supplies. Officially provided by the Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq but most probably originating from American supplies that made a detour through Arbil. These drops could only have been made with the tacit approval of Turkey. The second revelation, one day later, came from Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, who announced that his government was helping Iraqi Kurdish forces cross over to Kobani to assist the town's defenders through Turkish territory.
At the moment, most observers are still grappling with how to combine these two breakthroughs with the blunt statement made by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who, only a few days ago, said Turkey considered the Syrian Kurdish militants in Kobani terrorists and had no intention of distinguishing them from either the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) or the IS. It seems on the drops Turkey was simply overruled by the administration of President Barack Obama, which deemed the drops vital to hold on to Kobani and push back the IS. On the free passage through Turkish territory, Ankara most likely made the calculation that constantly refusing to allow other Kurds to come to the help of Kobani would further frustrate Washington and might well ruin its domestic peace process.
For now, by giving in to irresistible international and domestic pressure, Turkey seems to have saved face abroad and kept its potential to solve the Kurdish problem at home. My guess is these two concessions have given Ankara some breathing space but are only a temporary reprieve because of two future developments that will be hard, if not impossible, to resist.
One is the need to deliver heavy weapons to the Kurds fighting the IS in northern Syria. The Kurds themselves have indicated, and most military analysts agree, that with the help of ongoing bombings by allies the IS can be pushed out of Kobani. But in order to recapture all the areas that have been lost by the Syrian Kurds to IS, the People's Protection Units (YPG) need the same kind of heavy arms the IS has. These heavy weapons can't be dropped from the air and will have to be transported by road. That means Turkish roads. Sooner rather than later, Turkey will come, again, under strong pressure, this time to allow a massive flow of very visible American and European weapons to united Kurdish forces in Syria. To keep making a difference between “bad” Kurds (Syrian and Turkish) and “good” Kurds (Iraqi), as Turkey is still trying to do, will become impossible. Turkey will be forced to make a deal, first with the Democratic Union Party (PYD) (not considered a terrorist organization by the US), and later on, inevitably, with the PKK.
There is a second evolution that will oblige Turkey to revise its position. In the defense of Kobani, YPG forces are fighting alongside mainstream rebel forces. The US, no doubt, is stimulating the Syrian Kurds to engage with other armed groups opposed to both IS and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In an announcement on Monday, the YPG made it clear there is already growing coordination with important factions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in several places. More importantly, the YPG and FSA battlefield alliance seems to go beyond the need to combat IS. There are several indications the Syrian Kurds are willing to help rebels in other parts of the country, not just the Kurdish areas. This is in return, one may assume, for some sort of guarantee on Kurdish autonomy in a post-Assad Syria.
On the one hand, the YPG-FSA cooperation would be good news for Turkey, one of the strongest supporters of the FSA and struggling to find partners in its determined efforts to kick out Assad as soon as possible. At the same time, the FSA-YPG alliance will make it even more difficult for Turkey to keep labeling the YPG as terrorists. On top of that, if Turkey is obliged to accept Kurdish autonomy in Iraq and Syria, how long can it resist similar demands from its own Kurds?

JOOST LAGENDIJK (Cihan/Today's Zaman)



 
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