Opinion: Protest Party As Kingmaker?

The UK Independence Party could prove to be kingmaker for the British Conservative Party in next year's election. But only on condition of a referendum on the EU - a dangerous game, says DW's Barbara Wesel.

Ever since last week's by-election gave the UK Independence Party (UKIP) its first MP in the British parliament, panic has taken hold in the governing Conservative Party. The fact that the MP in question is a defector from its own ranks only exacerbates the misery. The Tories are becoming increasingly nervous and are trying to outflank the far-right protest party while simultaneously tempting them with concessions. Now UKIP leader Nigel Farage, an uber-populist and a crafty orator, has been given a spot in the TV debates during the 2015 campaign.



Farage, a former banker who has styled himself as an anti-politician and a beer-drinking man on the street, has offered the Conservatives bait of his own - and it could prove a fatal trap. In return for making it a kingmaker in parliament, he wants a referendum on European Union membership before the end of 2015 - Farage's defining issue since he became a member of the European Parliament.



Anti-everything



The rise of UKIP from a rabble of troublemakers to a serious political force could be the blueprint for similar movements across Europe. UKIP is a collection of nostalgic, disgruntled xenophobes - dissatisfied people of all political shades. Its politics is mainly about being anti-everything: anti-Europe, anti-immigration, anti-globalization. They're also seasoned with a strong dose of eccentric policies, such as limiting the number of foreign players in professional soccer clubs to three, or introducing HIV tests for immigrants at border control.



But the real driving force behind Farage's collection of complainers and underdogs has come from the Conservative Party, which is currently falling over itself with anti-European proposals. Its right-wing has already called for UKIP to be named a future coalition partner, and leading Tories are now even demanding an immigration "a for EU citizens. In this atmosphere, there will be little opportunity for negotiations with Brussels about new conditions for the UK's place in the EU. Such conditions are not something that can be negotiated in a few months - in other words, any 2015 referendum will almost certainly be on a "Brexit" - Britain's exit from the EU.



How not to do it



Prime Minister David Cameron has shown how not to do deal with right-wing Euroskeptics - he has allowed UKIP and his own right-flank to lead the debate on the European question. He has given the protest party too much attention and allowed it to determine the political debate. The supposed concerns of UKIP voters have suddenly become political guidelines. Berlin, in particular, should learn from London's mistakes when it bids to fend off the threat from the Euroskeptic Alternative für Deutschland. Following the British example is definitely not recommended.