Opinion: The Cold Warriors' Historic Mistakes

By realigning America's relations with Cuba, Obama is initiating a long-overdue change in US foreign policy. The Republicans, though, are doing what they always do and are making a historic mistake, says Michael Knigge.



You don't have to be an expert in US politics to correctly predict the Republican reaction to the announcement of a turnaround in American-Cuban relations. All you need to know is that it's Barack Obama's initiative. Equipped with this information, anyone who has been following world events in an even rudimentary way since Barack Obama was elected in 2008 could predict that the Republicans would oppose the reorientation of American policy on Cuba.



Because that is what the US conservatives always do. The opposition reflex is deeply ingrained. And it's exactly what's happened this time, too. Led by the darling of the Tea Party movement, Senator Marco Rubio from Florida, the Republicans are mobilizing against the rapprochement with their favorite enemy in the hemisphere. Immediately after the initiative was made public, Rubio, whose parents are from Cuba and who is seen as a possible candidate for the presidency in 2016, announced, "Congress will not lift the embargo."



Criticism of Pope Francis







Like many American Catholics of Cuban origin, Rubio was even openly critical of the Pope's role in bringing about the American-Cuban rapprochement. He would request that the Pope take up the cause of freedom and democracy, he said. There was support for Rubio's course of head-on opposition from the future Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell. But John McCain also accused Obama of introducing a policy that was "about the appeasement of autocratic dictators."



Indeed, only the US Congress can officially lift the trade embargo, which has been in place since 1960 and has constituted the core of America's anti-Cuba policy to date. With the current and future majority in Congress, it is not conceivable that the embargo will be lifted. Below this threshold, however, President Obama has plenty of leeway to do what he has announced: extend possibilities for travel between the two countries, normalize diplomatic relations, and re-examine Cuba's status as a sponsor of terrorism. This way, relations between the two countries will effectively be given a new foundation, even without a lifting of the embargo.



Blockade politics in Congress







The Republican leaders in Congress will try to thwart all of this, block it and put it on the back burner. From January onwards, they will have a majority in Congress, which will provide them with even more possibilities to do this than before. For example, it is quite conceivable that they will refuse to endorse a US ambassador for Cuba, or that they will try to block financing for realigning the policy on Cuba. Incidentally, Marco Rubio will have a key role to play in this, as from January onwards, he will probably be the new chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere, which counts Cuba policy as part of its remit.



With all their reflexive criticism of Obama's initiative, many Republicans stubbornly refuse to acknowledge a central aspect of Cuba policy to date. The aim of the world's longest-ever trade embargo was to bring democracy to Cuba. A noble aspiration. Unfortunately, after more than 50 years of isolation and blockade of the island it has, quite clearly, not been achieved. There is no reason to believe that this would change were the status quo to be maintained. Those who suffer from this policy are not, however, the Castro brothers so loathed by many conservatives, but the Cuban people!



Gorbachev's warning







Instead of finally accepting that the anti-Cuba policy that began more than half a century ago has failed, and debating new ways of trying to democratize Cuba, the US conservatives stubbornly continue to insist on pursuing the old course. The Cold Warriors among the Republicans won't like to hear it, but they ought to remember a saying by Mikhail Gorbachev. In a different context, the last Soviet leader once said, "Life punishes those who come too late" - and that's also true in this case.