Political Will For A Ceasefire Is Still Lacking

Despite the international community's appeals for a long-term ceasefire in Gaza, Israel and Hamas continue to fight. The radical forces on both sides are showing little interest in ending the war.

It served as little more than a clear signal to the conflict parties when the UN Security Council unanimously called on Israelis and Palestinians to adopt "a durable and fully respected ceasefire" overnight into Monday (28.07.2014). The statement, which was agreed by all 15 members of the UN body, was proposed by Jordan.



The UN council's presidential statement is not legally binding. Meeting that standard would have required an official resolution. However, the council - in which the five permanent members Russia, the US, France, Great Britain and China have veto powers - could not settle on a resolution.



Following the council's summit, Palestinian UN ambassador Riyad Mansour criticized it for merely issuing a declaration and also for opting not to call for Israeli troops to leave the Gaza Strip.



Positive signal



German parliamentarian Tom Koenigs of the Green party, a former UN special rapporteur in Kosovo and Afghanistan, also wanted to see stronger action taken.



"It would have been better if there had been a resolution that was more binding," he said in an interview with radio broadcaster Deutschlandfunk. But he also stressed positive aspects, saying, "Nonetheless, it's important that this appeal is made clearly and supported by all participants - those with both direct and indirect interests. From that point of view, it's good that there was a unanimous declaration."



It's possible the declaration represents the first step toward a resolution, says Muriel Asseburg, a Middle Eastern affairs expert with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) think tank.



"In terms of the language used, expectations on behavior are formulated the way they would be in a resolution," Asseburg notes.



The fighting continues



It's improbable that the UN statement in its current form can achieve the aims it states. Monday brought continued fighting and deaths on both sides, while UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon also urged a ceasefire.



Neither side seems interested in effecting a true stop to the bloodshed, despite its already high toll. Since the conflict broke out around three weeks ago, more than 1,000 Palestinians - mostly civilians - have died. Israel reports that 43 soldiers and three civilians have been killed.



The majority of Israelis appears to support the tough course taken by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. Citing survey results, the "Jerusalem Post" reported Sunday (27.07.2014) that 86.5 percent of respondents did not support a ceasefire.



Netanyahu also said to a US broadcaster over the weekend that his country will do everything necessary to protect the Israeli population. The prime minister added that he won't allow "an unscrupulous terror group to decide when it's ready to take a break to re-arm itself, so that it can then renew its attacks on our citizens."



Hardliners profit



However, Hamas is benefitting from the ongoing conflict, says Asseburg: "In the short term, the group is being weakened militarily and strengthened politically. Whether it will emerge from the crisis politically strengthened in the medium to long term will depend primarily on the ceasefire conditions."



The political expert adds that it will also play a role whether Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah "can offer a credible alternative to armed resistance," finding political, non-violent means to "end the occupation and noticeably improve the situation in the Gaza Strip." In order to do so, she says, Fatah must be actively incorporated during possible ceasefire negotiations.



It's ultimately only Hamas that can end the rocket fire from Gaza into Israel. The political wing of the radical Islamic organization continues to hold sway over the armed wing of the group.



"Hamas has proven again and again in recent years that it is itself capable of sticking to a stop in the fighting and that it can also largely bring other militant groups to do the same," Asseburg said.