Problems In The Peace Process With The PKK

The peace process between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) seems to have paused at a critical stage. Each party accuses the other and holds the other side responsible for the current situation. The PKK blames the AKP government for not keeping its promises, while the government blames the PKK for not pulling out its militants from the country.

Examining both sides of the argument indicates that there are a few problems that caused the peace process to be halted.

The first problem is the issue of trust between the parties. The AKP does not trust the PKK and the PKK similarly does not trust the AKP government. This issue has always been the core problem of the peace process between the two sides. From the very beginning up until today, the PKK was very clear about the issue and openly declared that they don't trust the Turkish government at all. Senior PKK figures Murat Karayılan and Cemil Bayık declared a number of times during the peace process that they don't trust the AKP government and the Turkish state; the only thing they trust is their organization and the Kurdish people who support the PKK.

In fact the PKK's aim was clear. If the government was sincere about what they were offering them, the PKK would win. If not, the PKK should use the period of peace to strengthen its military capabilities and network and expand its influence over the Kurdish people, which is also a big win.

Given the fact that the PKK lost many of its militants during the Turkish Armed Forces' (TSK) 2011 and 2012 offensives, the peace process was a big win for the PKK to recover. In fact during the peace process, the PKK healed its wounds and fixed its weaknesses. The PKK is now stronger than ever. As Etyen Mahçupyan, chief advisor to Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, admitted, the PKK is the de facto power in the Southeast for maintaining order, not the Turkish state.

As the PKK rightly calculated and carefully strategized its peace process, the AKP government's real aim was to gain more time to win the upcoming elections during the cease-fire period.

The issue of mistrust between the two sides has now risen to the surface because the PKK set a timetable for the peace process and is forcing the AKP government to keep its promises, which include allowing PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to serve house arrest and allowing municipalities to run the region as an autonomous region.

For the AKP, the mistrust issue is rather related to the current international and domestic environment. With their conspiratorial mindset, Turkish officials believe the international community would help the PKK establish a Kurdish state within Syria and eventually partition Turkey. The US's aid to the Democratic Union Party (PYD) made Turkey realize this, and they are now looking for opportunities to end the possibility of establishing a PKK state inside Syria.

The second problem between the two sides is the timetable. The PKK expected 2015 to be the year that Öcalan would be released from prison. In fact, it seems that the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) has promised Öcalan such a timetable. Öcalan himself admitted that he would not stay in İmralı Prison for years. However, the changing international environment and the upcoming elections have forced the AKP government to postpone the promises made to Öcalan and the PKK. The PKK expectedly thinks the AKP government did not intend to keep the promises that were made during the negotiation process.

Thus, the PKK is forcing the government to keep its promises and to the timetable that had been set a few years ago. In return the AKP government is reminding the PKK that it, too, did not keep its promises to withdraw its militants from Turkey back in 2012.

To be fair to both sides, the AKP government has no right to accuse the PKK of such a thing at this point because the government knew the PKK has not withdrawn any of its militants since 2012 but still continued to negotiate with the PKK. Therefore, when the PKK asked the government to keep its promise, it is not right to go back and remind the PKK that “you, too, did not keep your promise.”

The third problem is the Kobani crisis. But it is more or less related to the first two problems. The PKK predictably wants Turkey to help it fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) if they want to re-establish a new state, Kurds and Turks alike. The Turkish government, however, at least indirectly, helped ISIL to expand its presence in Kobani. Both the AKP government and the PKK don't trust the other, so they are using the Kobani issue as an excuse to pause the peace process.

EMRE USLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman)