Scenarios For The Middle East

The international system that emerged in the wake of the Cold War is now falling apart. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, national borders changed in the European continent, along with regimes and governments. New states have appeared, and some others have disappeared, but in the end, most of the continent has been reunified again thanks to the European Union. European nations have witnessed this tremendous change in their daily lives, from political conditions to the currency they use for their daily purchases. The transformation took more than 10 years and was not completely smooth: How can anyone forget the bloodshed in the Balkans of the 1990s?
In the Middle East, a similar transformation has begun, and it is already marked by civil wars and terrorist attacks. One can guess this bloody process will be a long one and will probably bring border changes.
These border changes will be carefully observed by Israel, Iran, Egypt and Turkey. It is clear that the central Iraqi government in Bagdad can hardly manage the delicate balances of the country, and the local Kurdish government of Arbil can declare independence any moment. The Syrian Kurds may do the same as well -- perhaps even before the Iraqi Kurds, depending on the evolution of the Kobani conflict. If the Kurds decide to secede, the Syrian Alawites may decide to do the same along the Mediterranean coast of the country.
Should these states be recognized internationally, as Kosovo has been recognized, there will be no reason for the Palestinians or the Turkish Cypriots to wait further. When a dynamic of border change begins, no one can predict where it will stop: What will the Turkmens or Christian minorities decide to do then, for example? The Middle East probably needs some kind of Dayton Agreement in order to give all peoples of the region a country. But Turkey and Iran will definitely not remain idle when the whole regional system crumbles away.
In Europe, secessions were compensated for with regional integration, under the EU's leadership. Can something similar happen in the Middle East? If so, we should think about different reunification scenarios as well. The great powers may encourage these new states to form new regional alliances, as the Middle East risks becoming much too unstable with all these new players. These allies may decide to unite their forces by creating new federal states. Let's anticipate a number of eventual federations: a Turkish-Kurdish one; a Shiite one, merging Iran and the Iraqi Shiites; another one between Jordan and Palestine; perhaps one other between the Alawites and Turkmens or between Egypt and what will be left of Syria. Maybe a regional integration movement copying the EU model will surface from this chaos.
Further scenarios may be developed, but none of them will be implemented without bloodshed. Perhaps that is why the peoples of the region will agree to implement the one with less bloodshed.
The bloodshed can be limited only if the great powers come to some sort of agreement. Conflict and bloodshed will grow if the great powers fail to agree. One wonders if the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has appeared just to ensure the implementation of one of these scenarios. Its existence and actions seem to encourage some of the above-mentioned federal scenarios. ISIL and its foreign fighters have made sure that the great powers start working together again on the Middle East. Even Canada has joined the coalition, regardless of how far the region is from it.
Maybe at this point it is better to look at those who have stayed out of the coalition. They haven't joined in because they probably have different scenarios in mind. So the "coalition" is doing everything to persuade them.

BERİL DEDEOĞLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman)