Scotland Ready For Historical Referendum

Until little over a week ago, it seemed unthinkable - that Scotland, an integral part of the United Kingdom, a country fused with England for more than three centuries, could break away and go it alone.

But as campaigners make their last attempts to convince the undecided ahead of Thursday's referendum, polls suggest it's a very real possibility.

Scotland decides on its future Thursday, with voters torn between competing visions -- one arguing that the nation is stronger as part of the UK, the other claiming that Scotland has the means to go it alone.


Soundbites
Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland
Tony Travers, Professor of local government, London School of Economics
David Cameron, British Prime Minister
Adrian Rogstad, Europe & CIS Analyst, IHS
Dopesheet


Until little over a week ago, it seemed unthinkable - that Scotland, an integral part of the United Kingdom, a country fused with England for more than three centuries, could break away and go it alone.

But as campaigners make their last attempts to convince the undecided ahead of Thursday's referendum, polls suggest it's a very real possibility.

SOUNDBITE 1 - Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland (man, English, 15 sec):
“Our confidence is not based on any opinion poll, on any particular aspect on any endorsement, on any expert, it’s based on what we’re finding in the communities around Scotland. That’s what our confidence is based in, it’s based on that that we know the momentum is with us.”

Scottish residents aged 16 and over - some 4.2 million people - will have the right to vote.

Opinion polls had long given the No campaign a decisive lead - but by earlier this month, the race had significantly tightened.

SOUNDBITE 2 Tony Travers, London School of Economics (man, English, 20 secs):
"I think the entire British political establishment, including sections of the British media, certainly as based in England, particularly in London, has just coasted along assuming that 'No' would win, and that's why the sudden spurt in the 'Yes' vote is so shocking to them. They hadn't really imagined this would ever happen."

The Yes campaign says Scotland, with its reserves of North Sea oil, and tourism and whisky industries, can prosper on its own.

It's also benefited from frustration among Scots that despite having their own parliament and considerable autonomy, they're still ultimately ruled by a Conservative-led government in Westminster, which they say doesn't represent them.

The No's, meanwhile, are still narrowly ahead in most polls, and say a yes vote would put living standards at risk, with the threat of higher taxes and the possibility of having to adopt a new currency.

SOUNDBITE 3 David Cameron, British Prime Minister (man, English, 13 sec):
"We should remember that it was economic opportunities that brought out nations together in 1707, the greatest merger in history. Three centuries on, our union and our prosperity are still closely bound."

If Scots do vote yes, the full implications almost literally incalculable. Months of intense negotiations would begin over how and where to relocate Britain's nuclear submarine base - how to disentangle three hundred years of shared institutions, and the status of relations with the EU, NATO and the world.

But even if Thursday's vote does see Scotland remain as part of the UK, what's not an option is continuing with the status quo.

SOUNDBITE 4 Adrian Rogstad, Europe & CIS Analyst, IHS (man, English, 18 secs):
"Ultimately down the line, this could lead to a federalisation of the UK, where each region gains quite substantial fiscal autonomy. Of course, if Scotland votes Yes, that takes Scotland somewhat out of the equation, but that would still leave the question of what happens politically to the rest of the UK."

As results are tallied on Thursday evening, millions of Britons at home and abroad will be holding their breaths, waiting to see if they wake up to a changed country, and a step into the unknown.

SHOTLIST:

ALL IMAGES SOURCE: AFPTV UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED

-VAR 'YES' campaigners (EDINBURGH, 6th JUNE 2014)
- VAR YES campaign photo call with Alex Salmond, Amy MacDonald, Franz Ferdinand, Mogwai, Frightened Rabbit, Stanley Odd (EDINBURGH, 14 SEPTEMBER 2014)
-SOUNDBITE 1 (EDINBURGH, 14 SEPTEMBER 2014)
-VAR ext Glasgow streets and Yes campaign HQ (GLASGOW, SCOTLAND, 30 MAY 2014
-VAR 'No' campaigners in central Glasgow (GLASGOW, 23 JULY, 2014)
-SOUNDBITE 2 (London, Sep 2014)
- various exterior and interior shots of a whisky museum (EDINBURGH, JUNE 23-24, 2011)
-VAR exterior of Scottish parliament
-VAR Better Together campaigners going door to door (EDINBURGH, SEPTEMBER 11, 2014)
-SOUNDBITE 3 David Cameron (GLASGOW, 28 AUGUST 2014)
-VAR wide views of Edinburgh
-VAR photos of HMS Astute, British Royal Navy nuclear submarine (Faslane, Scotland, UK, November 2009, AFP Photo/Andy Buchanan)
-MS Big Ben at the Houses of Parliament (London, 11 Sept 2013)
-CU Scotland office in London (London, 11 Sept 2013)
-Scottish and EU flags (EDINBURGH, UK, JULY 26-29, 2014)
-VAR farmer's market at the foot of Edinburgh castle (EDINBURGH, JUNE 23-24, 2011)
-SOUNDBITE 4 Adrian Rogstad (London, Sep 2014)
-People in the street (GLASGOW, UK, JULY 21-29, 2014)
- VAR referendum open day in Edinburgh, including 'Yes' (Edinburgh, July 21-29, 2014)
- VAR newspaper front pages on Scottish referendum (EDINBURGH, SEPTEMBER 14, 2014)