Something Is Happening At The AKP

The campaign to criticize President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's manner of administration, kicked off by former Parliament Speaker Bülent Arınç and maintained by former government spokesperson Hüseyin Çelik, has the potential to change the ordinary course of the political scene.

Arınç and Çelik breached Erdoğan's immunity from criticisms within the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Arınç and Çelik are experienced politicians and they certainly know what their moves meant.

When former President Abdullah Gül visited first President Erdoğan and then a group of former ministers and AKP executives, including Arınç and Çelik, at Arınç's house, this was considered as "mediation" by some journalists.

No statement came from the presidential palace regarding Gül's visit. Gül, too, made no statements about it. Arınç just said everyone should take "lessons" from his response to Erdoğan's remarks, addressing him as "that guy."

Here the question is: did Erdoğan try to use Gül to silence Arınç and Çelik, who rebelled from within the AKP, on his quest to become "one man"? The obvious answer is "yes." Will Arınç and Çelik act as though they hadn't voiced any criticism while Erdoğan prepares to campaign for the "Turkish-style" presidential system? Will Gül give up his opposition to the presidential system? The answer to all of these questions is "no."

In this sense, the Erdoğan-Gül meeting was intended to test each other and try to understand the other's intentions. But it will hardly be sufficient to cover up the rift that has been saliently exposed within the AKP. Indeed, it would be naïve to expect Erdoğan to pay any heed to these criticisms and change his manner of governance and give up his intention to introduce the presidential system.

Is this group, apparently led by Gül, preparing to set up a new party? This is the question everyone is curious about.

The answer depends on Erdoğan's attitude. If Erdoğan denigrates his former "colleagues" and continues to let pro-government media outlets label them as "traitors," this group may consider splitting from the AKP, reasoning, "We are not allowed to pursue a political career in this party we founded."

This is a possibility Erdoğan is worried about. Opposition from such a party will certainly be more effective as it will soon create certain attraction. Indeed, they are former "comrades" who know Erdoğan very well.

There is also the Ahmet Davutoğlu factor. What will he do?

This is a golden opportunity for Davutoğlu to remember and assert his powers and responsibilities as prime minister and AKP chairman. If he does not sit and watch as Erdoğan usurps his powers and authorities and if he asserts himself as the one who calls the shots, a truly new period may dawn for the AKP. Then, the possibility of the AKP splitting up will drop from the agenda.

In this regard, the attitude Gül, Arınç, Çelik and others will adopt is dependent on Erdoğan's and Davutoğlu's attitudes. As far as I can see, Davutoğlu will refrain from confronting Erdoğan for the sake of "harmony."

We will wait and see what will happen, but it won't be long.

CAFER SOLGUN [Cihan/Today's Zaman]