The AKP's Only Option

Whatever the Justice and Development Party (AKP) says about the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Kobani and the Democratic Union Party (PYD), they have been forced to do or say the opposite of what they've claimed. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had repeatedly asserted that the PKK, ISIL and the PYD are all the same and they are all terrorists. He stated several times that Turkey would not help the terrorist PYD.

Yet, as usual, he received a phone call from the US and he dramatically changed his position on the PYD. Previously, his government was seen as soft on ISIL and they were forced to call ISIL a terrorist group. On the domestic front, he was forced by the PKK to sit on the negotiation table and to agree to Öcalan's terms, despite his boastful claims to the contrary.

Because of these unprincipled U-turns and zigzags, a New York Times cartoon depicted him as a whirling dervish who navigates between ISIL and the US. I would not be surprised if they portrayed him as a belly dancer soon, to ironically criticize his very quick maneuvering skills.

As I have repeatedly argued here, Erdoğan has entered a dead-end street and he has to obey the demands of the US. This may be god or bad. We do not know. What we know is that he does not consult with anyone on these issues and he may be single-handedly guiding a huge country into troubled waters without any public or parliamentary debate at all.
It seems that this is a Catch-22 situation, and the more tyrannical he gets, the more he is bogged down by immense problems, especially in the international arena. Now, he has only one poisonous option: to submit to American pressure in Turkey's international issues and concerns. This is what many other Middle Eastern autocrats do on a regular basis, and Erdoğan is simply becoming just another one of them.

Erdoğan cannot listen to the EU since it still expects Turkey to be a democratic country. Yet, at the moment, this is anathema to the Erdoğan regime, which is afraid of judicial design. Now, Erdoğan is in almost full control of the judiciary. The judges of the courts dealing with the Dec. 17 and 25 corruption investigations were appointed by Erdoğan and they are loyal to Erdoğan.
Nevertheless, the prosecutors did not want to take the concrete legal evidence to the court and instead simply closed the case, fearing that even a fake trial that ended in acquittal could harm Erdoğan, since people would have the opportunity to hear the evidence. To cut a long story short, Erdoğan has to pressure the judicial system to cover his alleged corruption. He has to censor his media -- which constitute 70-80 percent of the media in Turkey -- so that his 50 percent of voters do not hear about these corruption issues, or even if they hear of them, it comes from the marginalized, vilified and demonized remaining 30 percent of the media.

Yet, to do all of this Erdoğan has to stick to his authoritarianism. At least 50 percent of the people now hate his regime. Several of the media bosses succumbing to self-censorship through excruciating pressure applied on them do not like him. And, if the country becomes democratic again, Erdoğan will not be able to win elections unless he rigs them, which is very probable but not very easy to do. All of this means Erdoğan needs to stay away from the EU. For economic reasons, he cannot of course wreck Turkey's relations with the EU, but he will continue to play his games. Turkey's pendulum is now nearer to the Pentagon at the expense of Brussels.

Since he has been cornered by the US regarding his dodgy dealings -- like corruption, Reza Sarraf, Yasin Al-Qadi and allegedly helping ISIL and even Boko Haram -- he has had to cooperate with the US. The sad thing is that unlike twelve years ago, Turkey is not in a position to negotiate the terms of such agreements. Thus, Turkey may end up doing things that will seriously harm interests and destabilize Turkey, even turning the country in to a sort of Afghanistan, Pakistan or Lebanon. If Turkey were a democratic country, all these traumatic problems would have probably been dealt with smoothly. But now it is too late.

İHSAN YILMAZ (Cihan/Today's Zaman)