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The Danger Over The Border

27.08.2014 11:40

As you may recall, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) was, in the beginning, active in Syria and only recently has it become active in Iraq, too. Now it seems the group is returning to Syria. There seem to be two possible explanations for this: Either the US military intervention has really.

As you may recall, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) was, in the beginning, active in Syria and only recently has it become active in Iraq, too. Now it seems the group is returning to Syria. There seem to be two possible explanations for this: Either the US military intervention has really had a big impact on the ground and ISIL is no longer able to pursue its advance on Iraqi territory, or it simply believes its mission in Iraq has already been accomplished.
ISIL's activities have had several outcomes: The US had to conduct a military operation in Iraq after a couple of years, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has been evicted from power, the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds have begun working together and a rapprochement between these Kurds and Ankara has begun.
The ISIL militant who beheaded the American journalist James Foley last week was a British Muslim. This revelation symbolizes the end of ISIL's mission in Iraq. To put it more clearly, the time has come to reveal which states and intelligence agencies are behind this influential armed group. It is clear that those sponsors have manipulated ISIL for many divergent purposes.
The American intervention and ISIL's retreat to Syria tell us that the decline of the group has begun. Its zone of influence will diminish, even though it will continue its activities locally. It is important to remember, however, that ISIL's initial area of activity was the Turkish-Syrian border zone.
It may seem contradictory, but ISIL's activities have served the interests of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from day one. But those who manipulate the group are not Assad's old friends. In other words, Iran and Russia have already been replaced. Assad will have to cooperate now with the powers that attack ISIL. Therefore, Assad will also have to work together with the Syrian Kurds. It appears that those players who fight on the ground are progressively changing their sponsors and ISIL's activities provide justification for this switch.
Of course, Syria's "old" sponsors will not simply stand by and watch; they are probably already preparing their plans to sabotage their rivals' strategic projects.
Everybody knows that in the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Turkey supported the opposition completely, but ISIL has pushed Turkey out of the game. But now, as ISIL's retreat has begun, Turkey may return to the game. This time, Turkey's entrance in the game will be the result of ISIL's provocations, rather than Assad's. Turkish public opinion is already quite negative about the growing number of Syrian refugees and in the event of an eventual ISIL provocation, it will expect a strong reaction from the government. If the Turkish government -- especially a government under Prime Minister-designate Ahmet Davutoğlu -- does not react accordingly, there will be huge social discontent, provoking unexpected political destabilization. The problem is, when Turkey reacts, it will be accused of acting like the US in Iraq.
If, as a response to an ISIL provocation, Turkey retaliates, it will return to the game, but paradoxically acting in Assad's favor as ISIL is a common threat. Furthermore, Turkey's cooperation with the Kurds will also develop.
We just have to congratulate those who have designed this game. Turkey's return to the equation will force a number of third parties to leave the region once more. Those who have built secret ties with the Kurds and the Assad regime will be exposed and they will lose their influence. It is perhaps not a coincidence that Germany's eavesdropping on Turkey has been revealed just now.
The fighting in Syria and Iraq has already turned into a struggle between Western "allied" powers, and ISIL has been used as an extremely useful instrument in this struggle.

BERİL DEDEOĞLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman)



 
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