The MHP Factor

Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli's harsh rejections of coalition proposals come as a surprise for those who don't know the MHP closely.
The MHP is not a totalitarian party; it does not have a comprehensive ideological program. It is the "pro-Turkish" party whose policies are guided by simple principles. Bahçeli's tough and uncompromising stance should be seen as his efforts to carve his party a larger space in the emerging political setting in the wake of the June 7 election. It follows that Bahçeli is strengthening his party by analyzing the new circumstances. The first part of the circumstances he analyzes should concern the fate of the MHP's simple principles. The second part is the area where the potential plans of other players may trap the MHP.
The second part is more important than the first one because the MHP, as a reactionary party, will form its defensive sphere according to the players of other parties. Therefore, if the MHP leader assumes a harsh and uncompromising attitude, this means that he makes certain predictions regarding the strategies of other parties. Thus, he believes that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) wouldn't want to form a coalition with the MHP and the Republican People's Party (CHP) is already very eager to partner with the AK Party. Is he right? He may be wrong with this prediction, but he is certainly right about Eastern-style bargaining. If he shows eagerness for a coalition partnership, the CHP will lose the upper hand in bargaining with the AK Party. As the MHP's primary rival is the AK Party, the MHP wouldn't want the CHP to be a weak partner of the AK Party in a coalition. When the AK Party fails to establish a coalition government with the CHP, it will come to the MHP. When this happens, it will endow the harsh and uncompromising Bahçeli with a strategic advantage.
The main reason for Bahçeli's harsh stance is the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). The MHP sees itself as the HDP's antithesis and is aware of the fact that the HDP has entered Parliament by securing an equal number of seats as the MHP. If the HDP becomes a coalition partner, it knows that it cannot counterbalance the HDP's increased influence. Thus, it moves on the seesaw to position itself between the government and the HDP, close to the center of gravity. Thus, it will both criticize the government and stop the HDP. The recent developments in Syria make the HDP a player with power going beyond Turkey's borders, especially with Iraq. Thus, Bahçeli believes the MHP should be in the opposition camp if it wants to defend Turkey's interests in line with the traditional state policies against the pro-Kurdish political movement.
By adopting a tough attitude in the face of coalition proposals, Bahçeli is preparing the ground for the psychological role he will adopt. By attacking the AK Party in connection with the graft and bribery scandals that went public on Dec. 17, 2013, he refuses to interact with the HDP. It follows that the MHP will lend active support to efforts to investigate the AK Party's corrupt practices and, at the same time, it will counterbalance the HDP's opposition. This strategy of fighting on two fronts gives the MHP the ability to protect itself as it avoids being sandwiched by these parties and simultaneously pits them against each other.
As is evident around the world, foreign exchange rates objectively reflect the market's reactions and expectations. While a margin of safety is allowed for the euro due to the Greek crisis, the Turkish lira is firm against the dollar. This firmness is the result of the markets' buying the expectations for a coalition government between the AK Party and the CHP. This strong support from the markets discourages President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan from going with a snap election to meet his own interests as the decision to take the country to a snap election in contrary to the economy's expectations for stability will make the decision-maker lose votes. Still, the MHP's strategy takes into account the possibility of a snap election. Apparently, Bahçeli believes that an election will be held within one year.
In sum, Bahçeli's tough and uncompromising attitude relies on his calculations about the coalition and the election. In the wake of the election, there are many more factors in the political processes and we need to pay greater attention to the refreshed MHP factor.

MÜMTAZER TÜRKÖNE (Cihan/Today's Zaman)