The PKK's Impact Upon Elections

In previous elections, the impact of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on the election process has always been negative. Because of the hatred people in the western parts of the country had for the PKK in the past, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Republican People's Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) relied on nationalistic discourses to attract voter support.

In the last election, the campaigns by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli seemed to be campaigns to promise the strongest action against the PKK and its leader, Abdullah Öcalan. The debate and controversy between the two leaders was so fierce that the MHP leader threw a rope at a political rally, asking then-Prime Minister Erdoğan to hang Öcalan with it. Erdoğan also declared those who talked to Öcalan to be dishonorable. Back then, whoever stood against Öcalan attracted more votes to his party. The emphasis upon nationalism in election campaigns will be one of the most influential campaign traits in the upcoming elections in June.

It became evident that the AKP won elections by buying time and offering a shaky solution process to the Kurdish issue. Now ordinary people see the PKK was allowed to maintain control in the region. And it is obvious that the state has lost control in Cizre. And during the Kobani protests, it became clear that the state was unable to prevent turmoil and chaos. And it became apparent that the state was at Öcalan's mercy. This is a perception that will affect the elections. But it is also dangerous to conduct an election campaign based on this perception. The MHP and AKP cannot conduct an election campaign by reference to the perception that the region was left to the PKK.

The reason for the AKP not to do so is obvious.

However, the MHP also cannot argue in the campaign that AKP left the region to the PKK. There are reasons for not doing so; because of intraparty affairs and because such a discourse will have a different impact upon the MHP support base. It is a fact that the region was left to the PKK's control but the MHP cannot refer to this fact because those who left the region to the PKK must have some important files that bind the MHP. It became clear that those institutions pressured the MHP. I believe the silence of the MHP while the region was left to the PKK should be attributed to the pressure put on the MHP. In addition, MHP-affiliated bureaucrats were assigned to critical posts in the western parts of the country; as a result, the MHP remained silent during the process of the region being left to the PKK's control.

The most important reason for the MHP not to rely on a discourse suggesting that the AKP left the region to the PKK is the change of people's attitude and perceptions towards the PKK. Particularly the AKP support base has already bought into the expectation that there is no problem in leaving the region to the PKK if nobody will die because of it. And the idea that the Kurds may have a separate entity if they want to has become widespread now.

In other words, Turks are now closer to the idea that the region could be left to the PKK. And if the MHP relies on a campaign suggesting that the region is being left to the PKK, this would not attract a strong reaction from the people. On the contrary, it would help the people become more comfortable with the idea that the region was already under PKK control. This means that the MHP support base would also become familiar with the view that if nobody will die, the PKK may have control in the region. And this would also mean that the PKK domination in the region would be further endorsed by the MHP support base.

For this reason, the idea that the region was left to the PKK would not work in the election campaign, and the campaign will thus rely on superficial nationalistic discourses. It canbe expected that the AKP will continue with a shallow nationalistic style. The slogan nationalism which will be reinforced by intense media support will be one of the greatest obstacles to the MHP's nationalistic campaigns. The votes the AKP would receive by reliance on nationalistic symbols will be more than the votes that it would lose because of the argument that the PKK is now dominant in the region.

The PKK's impact would only manifest if it starts attacks. If the PKK calls for violence, including street protests, the MHP will gain a greater amount of votes and the AKP less. And because it is aware of this, the AKP started the settlement process, which will work for both the AKP and the People's Democratic Party (HDP). For this reason, the AKP sends envoys to Öcalan to ensure that the election will be held without any problems. And it is aware that unless the PKK resumes violent acts, the nationalist voters in the West will still pick the AKP in the election.

Interestingly, Öcalan is also aware of this. For this reason, Öcalan will raise further demands in the settlement process. And after the elections, the content of the bargaining process will be changed. For the AKP, what is critically important is to hide the compromises made with Öcalan at this point. If the AKP does this, the PKK will have no significant impact in the elections.

EMRE USLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman)