Turkey-Armenia: Container Diplomacy

On the 100th anniversary of April 24, a number of predominantly Christian states including the Vatican, the Russian Federation as well as Germany and Austria that were the Ottoman state's allies in World War I defined it as genocide.
They further argued that this was the first genocide of the 20th century. By this definition, they attempted to present the so-called Armenian genocide as the precedent of other genocides during and after World War II. Will the Christian world's moves to push Turkey into a corner create any solutions in Turkish-Armenian relations and Armenian history? Of course not. These moves will only contribute to elevated nationalism and conservatism in Turkey and anti-Western sentiments in the country.

If the problems between Turkey, Armenia and the Armenian diaspora are not resolved, then the parties should agree that “we cannot resolve these problems.” None of the chronic problems between Turkey and Greece were resolved but bilateral relations have improved. The issues were shelved. Some progress has been made in prospective fields of cooperation. The improved relations between Turkey and Greece may set a precedent for relations between Turkey, Armenia and the Armenian diaspora.

Is genocide the source of the problem for the failure to normalize bilateral relations between the two countries and attain a solution to the closed border gates? Or is it the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia? Is it the influence of Azerbaijan on the nationalist and conservative segments and figures in Turkish domestic politics? Is it all about the political considerations of Turkish political parties? No, none of them. These are secondary reasons. The main problem is the failure of Armenia to declare that it would withdraw from the seven occupied provinces of Azerbaijan.

We cannot possibly expect some positive steps from Yerevan because of the deadlocked democracy. The sustenance of the anti-democratic Yerevan administration depends on the fear of Turkey, nationalism and religious sentiments. Because they would raise demands for democracy in Armenia, constructive steps towards the occupied regions of Azerbaijan may be dangerous for Yerevan.

Turkey could offer an interim problem. It could open the border gates for a limited period of time to ensure the transportation of goods. We could call this container diplomacy. This new diplomacy could be enforced after the June 7 general election and the inauguration of Parliament in October.

The Turkish-Armenian border starts from border sign No. 4 and ends at the border sign No. 148. Its total length is 325 kilometers. Two border gates along this line are closed: the Alican Border Gate and the Akyaka Railway Border Gate. The Alican Border Gate case is as follows: in the aftermath of the Azerbaijani-Armenian war that lasted through 1994, Armenia occupied Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven regions. In response to the invasion, Turkey shut down the Armenian border gate in April 1993 and the airspace in 1994. The H-50 air corridor was reopened in 1995 for international airlines.

It is a fact that because of the poor economic potential of South Caucasia and Northeast Anatolia, the size of bilateral trade will not increase significantly even if the Turkish-Armenian border gates are opened. For the US and the EU, the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border gates is a political, not an economic, problem. It is a project of democratizing Armenia and integrating it with the West.

The government in Turkey wants normalization with Armenia and the Armenian diaspora. For this reason, despite setbacks and obstacles, it keeps making constructive moves. Turkey's Education Ministry accepted the Turkish-Armenian community's appeal for official vacation in Armenian schools on April 24. For the first time in history, Turkey officially attended a religious ceremony held in commemoration of April 24 during the 100th anniversary under the auspices of the Armenian Patriarchate. EU Affairs Minister Volkan Bozkır said, “We respect the pains of our Armenian brothers.”

In the first quarter of the 21st century, we need new voices, new moves and new solutions in southern Caucasia.

HASAN KANBOLAT (Cihan/Today's Zaman)