Turkey's Syrian Adventure To Backfire

Turkey's interim government has given orders to the military to be prepared for an incursion into neighboring Syria to neutralize what it sees as an emerging security threat posed by the Syrian pro-Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) as well as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The Syrian Kurdish fighters' recent gains on the ground along the Turkish border region against the radical Islamic ISIL have intensified Turkish fears that a Kurdish state in Syria on its south may be in the offing.
Moreover, last week ISIL seized the territory to the west of the town of Marea, where two strategic border crossings between Turkey and Syria -- Öncüpınar (Bab al-Salam) and Cilvegözü (Bab al-Hawa) -- are located. Ankara now views possible ISIL advances in the area to the west of Marea, a town in the northern Syrian Aleppo Governorate, as a security threat. The intensified fighting between the PYD, supported by US and Canadian air strikes, and ISIL for the control of the Turkish border region triggered Ankara to give a written order to the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) to get ready for an incursion. The aim will be to stem possible advances by ISIL or the PYD and prevent any change in the demographic composition of the Syrian provinces near the Turkish border.
According to several Turkish dailies, however, the TSK suggested that the government initiate diplomacy with several countries involved directly or indirectly in the conflict, primarily with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, which has been engaged in a four-and-a-half-year-long civil war, to avert any retaliation from both Damascus and from some other countries. The TSK, reportedly, is of the opinion that a decision on an incursion in Syria should be given by the new government to be established since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its majority to set up a single-party government following the June 7 national election. Against this background, the TSK is said to prefer opening fire against both the PYD and ISIL targets from within Turkey to avoid international reaction if the interim government persists in taking action against both groups that it equally sees as terrorist organizations.
As this column went to press, the National Security Council (MGK), composed of civilian and military leaders, was discussing possible scenarios over the Turkish response to both the PYD and ISIL.
Ankara's intention to stage an incursion in Syria, however, raises questions over its real motives behind this plan. One of the motives is suspected to have been rallying votes behind the AKP to regain the majority and form a single-party government in a possible early election if a coalition government cannot be established. Another motive openly declared by the government is to prevent Syrian Kurds from setting up their autonomous administration along the Turkish border that it thinks will inspire its own around 12 million or more Kurds.
Yet any Syrian incursion by the TSK will not only complicate the war in this country, creating further security risks for Ankara, but will also not change the outcome in line with what Turkey wants.
If, however, we analyze the Syrian incursion issue based on civil-military relations, we will see that if the armed forces' head in any other NATO country refused to go along with the government's direction, the commander would resign and a new one would be appointed. The fact that the TSK can stall and avoid a government directive -- which is not new in Turkey -- tells a lot about the political power the military still possesses.
The big issue, meanwhile, is how close are the Turkish government and ISIL?
A Western military analyst told me: “Note that Turkey is the only country in the region that has not been attacked by ISIL and had its citizens decapitated. This is for a good reason -- ISIL knows Turkey is its lifeline to the outside world [its oxygen supply] and even though the government says it does not support ISIL it nevertheless did not close key border crossings when they were captured by ISIL. Access to the Turkish border is so important that ISIL recently launched an attack on Kobani trying to re-establish a link.”
Meanwhile, if Turkey was to attack ISIL then one only needs look at recent events in Tunisia to see what would happen to Turkey's tourism industry -- it would come to a halt.
“If Turkey were to attack ISIL, the military would suffer many casualties and ironically likely aid the Syrian regime and the PYD indirectly. But, if they were to end up clashing with the regime and the PYD, the whole region could blow up. Better make sure the air raid sirens in Ankara are working,” my Western military source warned.
The problem for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is that he is rapidly losing control of the Syria and Kurdish file. A coalition government would likely be soft on Syria and could expose ties with ISIL.
At the end of the day the Turkish government should side with the military and stay out of the Syria quagmire.

LALE KEMAL (Cihan/Today's Zaman)