US-Iran Nuclear Dead

No realistic observer expected that a clear-cut deal covering every detail of Iran's nuclear program could be sealed by the Nov. 24 deadline. Now that the deadline has passed, the situation could be summarized as follows:
-- The negotiations have been extended for another seven months until the end of June 2015.
-- Iran will not put in service new centrifuges. More Iranian sites are now open to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) experts.
-- Two new deadlines have been agreed upon: The next four months, starting from December, will be devoted to intense negotiations to sort out remaining unresolved issues; the subsequent three months will be devoted to finalizing the text of the nuclear agreement, complete with its annexes and protocols, if necessary.
-- $700 million per month will be released from Iran's assets that have been frozen in foreign banks, amounting to $4.9 billion by the end of the period.
During this last round of negotiations, the efforts of the P5+1 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) delegations have focused not on whether Iran should ultimately acquire nuclear weapons, but on how long a period should Iran be allowed to produce such weapons. The P5+1 have tried hard to prolong this period to a minimum of one year in order to give potential target countries time to take measures to counter this threat.
Iran is suffering from the economic sanctions. Some of the sanctions were imposed by the UN Security Council, some others unilaterally by the US, for reasons not related to Iran's nuclear program, therefore not binding third countries. But the violators of these unilateral sanctions are punished by the US. Despite this, Iran always had the upper hand during the negotiations because the Iranian economy has developed a sort of immunity over the years. Therefore, if worst comes to worst, Iran can walk out of the negotiations.
If this happens, one possibility is that Iran might turn to Russia and China expecting more understanding and cooperate more closely with them. There are signs that this is not an unrealistic prospect. Russia criticized some Western countries' attitude towards Iran. Furthermore, Iranian officials stated at one point that they would pull out of the negotiations if financial penalties are imposed.
If the negotiations fail, Iran may resume the nuclear program that it suspended. A scenario similar to this has happened in May 2010 when Turkey and Brazil had persuaded Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities and deliver 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to Turkey. After the Turkish-Brazilian initiative was rejected by the US, for no convincing reason, Iran continued its enrichment program until it reached 18 percent by the time a new round of negotiations were agreed between Iran and the P5+1. If Iran is cornered, theoretically, it may resort to this method again.
The future of the present Iran nuclear deal will probably be shaped by two major factors: One of them is the position that Ali Khamenei, the highest constitutional authority in Iran, will take. Last month, Khamenei published an 11-point list of non-negotiable red lines that included Iran's right to proceed with the civilian nuclear research and to enrich uranium for civilian purposes. President Hassan Rouhani's effort to rid Iran of the problems caused by the nuclear file and Javad Zarif's high negotiating skills may not be sufficient to circumvent Khamenei's veto.
The second factor is the future composition of the US Congress. Despite the fact that among Republican congressmen there are those who believe that the dialogue with Iran should continue, they insist that the Republican dominated Congress from next January will try to control the White House's foreign policy more strictly.
The opinions of Israel and Saudi Arabia are also important. They both regard a nuclear Iran as a major threat to their national security, but their attitude is not as important as the foregoing two factors.
Despite these factors, it will be a pity if the negotiations are allowed to collapse after the long distance that has been covered so far.

YAŞAR YAKIŞ (Cihan/Today's Zaman)