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'War Coalition' Or Early Election

03.07.2015 10:51

Turkey's ultranationalists paved the way for the election of a candidate from the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as parliament speaker, further weakening a front seeking to restore justice and rule of law in the country.The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) refrained from supporting a candidate from the Republican People's Party (CHP), thus helping AKP candidate Defense Minister İsmet Yılmaz be elected speaker.The June 7 national election resulted in the AKP losing its majority to form a single-party government, the first time in 13 years, paving the way for a coalition government to be established. In contrast to the 40.66 percent that the AKP won in the election, the CHP, the MHP and the main pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) together won 60 percent of the vote.

Turkey's ultranationalists paved the way for the election of a candidate from the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as parliament speaker, further weakening a front seeking to restore justice and rule of law in the country.
The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) refrained from supporting a candidate from the Republican People's Party (CHP), thus helping AKP candidate Defense Minister İsmet Yılmaz be elected speaker.
The June 7 national election resulted in the AKP losing its majority to form a single-party government, the first time in 13 years, paving the way for a coalition government to be established. In contrast to the 40.66 percent that the AKP won in the election, the CHP, the MHP and the main pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) together won 60 percent of the vote. This had raised the possibility that the three parties could set up a sustainable coalition government and effectively fight against the AKP's anti-democratic governance that we have been witnessing for a long time.
But MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli created a roadblock before this option when he set a condition for any coalition government to abandon the country's Kurdish peace process. The process was initiated by the AKP government in late 2012 to end through peaceful means the approximately 30-year-long fight against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Yet the AKP has also currently halted the process, raising the risk of a resumption of fighting between the PKK and security forces.
The MHP perceives the Kurdish process as an attempt to ultimately divide the country, ending its unity. The MHP is seeking for the PKK to lay down its arms unconditionally. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) similarly is of the opinion that the peace process will divide the nation, with the Turkish Kurds finally setting up their independent state. This commonality in Kurdish policy between the MHP and the TSK prompts us to wonder if Bahçeli has been acting in line with the military views, complicating the creation of a coalition government.
The first name of Bahçeli is Devlet, which means state. And this also sometimes makes us think Bahçeli is acting in line with the wishes of the state but not those of the citizens.
Bahçeli's choice not to support the CHP's candidate for parliament speaker has also reduced the chances of a possible coalition government that might be set up between the AKP and the CHP. This is because Bahçeli has turned upside down calculations made by both the CHP and the HDP to establish a balance in Parliament in favor of the 60 percent bloc and against the AKP.
The MHP, by leaning on the side of the AKP in the election of the parliament speaker, has prompted speculation that an AKP-MHP coalition may now be in the cards, replacing the possible option of an AKP-CHP coalition government.
HDP Co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş argued following the election for parliament speaker on Wednesday that a “war coalition” is in the offing, referring to a possible AKP-MHP coalition. He thus indicated that an AKP-MHP coalition, with the former also halting the peace process that it initially started, may trigger the resumption of fighting between the PKK and security forces.
On the other hand, even if the MHP had asked any of the parties to drop the Kurdish peace process from the agenda in any coalition talks, its other conditions put forth for being part of any government are the same as the CHP and the HDP. These conditions primarily include President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan acting in line with the Constitution and not violating the impartiality of the presidential role, which he frequently did prior to the June election campaign; bringing four former Cabinet ministers to justice over corruption allegations; and cancelling all the laws that were enacted under AKP rule.
Yet the AKP ruled out any such conditions to begin talks with the parties to set up a coalition government. This position by the AKP is a clear sign that President Erdoğan, who served as prime minister of the AKP for about 12 years before being elected president in August of last year, is still powerful in asserting his policies over this party.
Should the AKP agree to the other parties' conditions set forth as mentioned above, they will bring to the agenda, among other things, the corruption allegations that also implicated Erdoğan and some of his family members.
In the final analysis Erdoğan will not allow any coalition government that he cannot influence to be set up. He, however, also knows that none of the parties will accept any coalition government to be established with the AKP if their conditions are not met. Thus Erdoğan is preparing the groundwork for an early election, predicting that the AKP will this time win a majority to set up a single-party government.
Erdoğan is making clever plans to save himself from any trouble at the expense of the interests of citizens. With his uncompromising attitude, Bahçeli is serving the AKP and Erdoğan on a silver platter an early election that will, however, paradoxically weaken the MHP. But more importantly the MHP will further risk Turkish stability.
We will see how the coalition talks evolve when Erdoğan formally asks the AKP to do the job early next week.

LALE KEMAL (Cihan/Today's Zaman)



 
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