Where Erdoğan Falls Short Of Putin

I was one of the first commentators to draw attention to the similarities between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan -- then the prime minister and currently the president of Turkey -- and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a column titled “Does Erdoğan want to be like Putin?” published in the Zaman daily on Feb. 8, 2011, some time before the last general elections in Turkey in June of the same year. The similarities have become more visible since then.
On Oct. 29 the Guardian published a highly noteworthy article by Natalie Nougayrede comparing the two leaders, titled “The two angry men on Europe's borders: loud, proud and impossible to ignore.” The article noted the following commonalities: Both Putin and Erdoğan "aspire to be the fathers of the nation and mix nationalism with anti-liberal traditionalism. … They concentrate power, repress opposition, restrict media freedom, control the internet and have cowed the judiciary. … [Erdoğan] sees himself as the defender of Sunni Muslims in the Middle East, whereas Putin uses the Orthodox church to boost patriotism and strengthen Russian influence in the Slavic world. … Their historical narrative is about victimization by the West. … Both claim they were deceived by the West."
The article noted that both Erdoğan and Putin are obsessed with conspiracy theories, underlining: "All political opposition is ascribed to western-led plots. … Channeling public opinion against the West is politically convenient for both.
"Yet for all the similarities there are fundamental differences, Erdoğan and Putin disagree over Syria: regime change in Damascus, as promoted by Erdoğan, is anathema to Putin. … Unlike Turkey, Russia has nuclear weapons and gas. NATO is ultimately Turkey's protection against insecurity in the region while Putin sees it as a threat. … Unlike Putin, Erdoğan does not attempt to threaten western countries. He just complains about them."
I agree with most of Nougayrede's points, but there are some I can add. Syria is not the only issue Erdoğan and Putin disagree over. Erdoğan is highly upset over the annexation of Crimea by Russia, but has to keep quiet because Turkey imports 60 percent of its gas from the latter and 20 percent of its gas from the other patron of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran. Erdoğan is getting the Russians to build a nuclear power plant on the shores of the Mediterranean that will be owned by Russia, increasing Turkey's energy dependence on Russia while the risks will be shouldered by Turkey.
In the Erdoğan government there is at least one minister who continues to say the country's economy cannot grow without consolidation of the rule of law. There are no such voices in Putin's government. There is no substantial difference between Erdoğan and Putin in terms of the grave allegations of corruption and nepotism that have been raised against them.
Putin has complete control over the armed forces, sharing basically the same nationalist ideology with the military. Erdoğan has no such advantage. Turkey's military is committed to Kemalism, or secular Turkish nationalism, while Erdoğan's ideology can best be defined as Sunni Muslim religious nationalism. Erdoğan seems to have achieved control over the military, but there were coup attempts in the early stages of Erdoğan's rule, and the future possibility of such attempts cannot be entirely ruled out even today.
The Soviet Union was a military superpower, and Russia has taken over the Soviet army. Russia does not only have nuclear weapons but has modernized its conventional forces. Using its military power, Putin has been able to subdue Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine. The Turkish military's preparedness and appetite for beyond-the-border engagements are highly questionable. This is why Erdoğan government has to invent, rather than outside enemies, internal ones, and in order not to lose the support of his Kurdish supporters he has to engage in talks toward a resolution of the Kurdish problem.
Putin avails himself of a full-fledged Russian-style presidentialism, whereas Erdoğan pretends he has at his disposal the style of presidentialism of his dreams but in fact does not. Turkey has a far longer history in multi-party politics than Russia, and civil society in Turkey is far stronger than it is in the latter. Finally, it can also be said that Putin's economic worries due to the fall in oil prices and Western sanctions may be far greater than the ones faced by Erdoğan currently.

ŞAHİN ALPAY (Cihan/Today's Zaman)