Will Gaza Operation Affect Normalization Of Turkey-Israeli Relations?

Israel's Gaza operations continue to claim innocent lives. Expectedly, people around the world are reacting to what Israel has been doing against the people of Gaza.

The Turkish public, expectedly, has been outraged at the horrific images shown on news outlets. They took to the streets to show their anger with Israel.

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) government did not miss the opportunity to turn people's anger into an election advantage. First, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's daughter appeared in front of the Israeli embassy to protest and, later, AKP deputies and officials went to the protests. Last but not least, Prime Minister Erdoğan went to the podium and harshly criticized Israel. He even compared what Israel has been doing in Gaza with Hitler's genocide against the Jewish people.

Those who do not know Erdoğan well enough would easily think that his reaction to Israel is a genuine reaction, one that reflects his Islamic background. For a long time, I too myself thought that his reaction against Israel came from his Islamist background.

However, when I closely monitored when and how he reacts to Israel, I realized that his reaction is for no reason but to consolidate his constituencies.

For instance, his “one minute” reaction against Israeli President Shimon Peres in Davos back in 2009 was right before the 2009 local elections. It was at the time when the economic crisis hit the Turkish economy and the AKP's support was at its lowest point since 2007. Then, no one thought that Erdoğan's one-minute reaction was a preplanned one. Today, however, one of the founders of the AKP, Nevzat Yalçıntaş, revealed that it was.

The next incident between Israel and Turkey was the Mavi Marmara flotilla crisis. There is no doubt that the Mavi Marmara incident was a planned operation of Turkish Intelligence circles to not only mobilize the Turkish public around Erdoğan, but also to present Erdoğan as the new leader of the Middle East. From the very beginning to the end, it was well known by the AKP government that Israel would react aggressively. Thus, AKP deputies were told not to be on that ship. Since the AKP deputies got tips from intelligence circles, they left the ship at the last minute.

In fact, when we examine Erdoğan's image in the eyes of Arab communities, the Mavi Marmara incident was the peak point of his popularity. With the Mavi Marmara incident, Turkish policy makers tried to turn those one-minute reactions into a political advantage.

It was calculated that Turkey would use Erdoğan's popularity on the Arab street as a bargaining chip for Turkey to become a key regional player. In fact, up until the Arab Spring hit, Turkey suddenly became the number one country in the eyes of the Arab masses, and Turkish political elites started benefiting from this popularity. From tourism to investment, political rapprochements to education, Turkey, had become a focal point for many Arabs.

But after the Arab Spring, the Mavi Marmara plan turned into a big failure, especially as this became obvious once Turkish Foreign policy makers failed to forecast the impact of the Arab Spring in Egypt and Syria.

When the Arab Spring affected the Turkish plan negatively, Turkish policymakers tried to normalize Turkey-Israeli relations. In fact, in the last few months it was announced that Turkey and Israel had reached an agreement to normalize relations.

It seems that Turkey was expecting the upcoming presidential elections to normalize relations with Israel.

When Israel launched yet another offensive against Gaza, Erdoğan waited a few days to show any reaction against Israel. Erdoğan's silence was criticized by the opposition, but he preferred not to hear that criticism.

But when public reaction reached a level that meant it could be used to his advantage in the upcoming election, Erdoğan came to the stage and slammed Israel's aggression once again.

One would argue that Israel's Gaza operation provided Erdoğan a golden opportunity to launch his election campaign on the basis of anti-Israeli rhetoric. As he finds an enemy to fight in every election campaign, this time, Israeli aggression has “rescued” him by becoming his much needed enemy for this election period.

Since this is just a part of election rhetoric, I don't think Israel's recent operation against Gaza will worsen the half-restored relations with Israel. After the election, I expect that Erdoğan will resume the normalization process with Israel.

EMRE USLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman)