World Bank: Economic Opportunity Driving East Asia's Rapid Urbanization

Some 200 million people moved to urban areas in East Asia in the decade to 2010, the World Bank said. But Axel van Trotsenburg, the bank's vice president for the region, tells DW, the urbanization has only just begun.

The World Bank report, released on January 26, found that the urban population in East Asia grew at three percent a year, with urban areas expanding at an average of 2.4 percent during the same period. Titled "East Asia's Changing Urban Landscape: Measuring a Decade of Spatial Growth," the paper says that there are 869 urban areas with more than 100,000 people in the region.



They include eight megacities of more than 10 million people: the Pearl River Delta, Shanghai and Beijing in China; Tokyo and Osaka in Japan; and Jakarta, Seoul and Manila. China's Pearl River Delta has overtaken Tokyo to become the largest urban area in the world in both size and population.



In a DW interview, Axel van Trotsenburg, the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Regional Vice President, says that despite such significant and rapid growth, the data reveals that less than one percent of the total area in East Asia is urbanized, and only 36 percent of the total population is urban – suggesting that the region's urban expansion has only just begun.



DW: Where did urban populations grow fastest in East Asia over the past decade?



Axel van Trotsenburg: China certainly dominates the region in terms of the scale and pace of urbanization. 600 out of the 869 urban areas we studied were in China, as were many of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the region. The World Bank recently did a joint study with China's Development Research Center that studied Chinese urbanization in detail, which suggests that while China's economic development is definitely a driving factor behind this rapid urbanization, it is also partly the result of the government's promotion of urbanization, and conversion of rural to urban land at a large scale.



There was a large amount of urbanization in the region beyond China. For example, Indonesia's urban population increased by 28 million people between 2000 and 2010. Vietnam also urbanized rapidly, overtaking Thailand and South Korea in terms of total urban land, and also had a higher rate of urban population growth than China. In terms of the fastest rate of urban population growth, small countries like Lao PDR and Cambodia started from a low base but are urbanizing the fastest.



Urban growth is not happening only in the "megacities." For example, there was a larger absolute increase in the population of urban areas with fewer than one million people (an increase of around 60 million people) than there was in the megacities of over 10 million people (an increase of 50 million people).



What are the main factors driving East Asians to move to urban areas?



We know that economic opportunity is usually the biggest driver of rural to urban migration. This study confirms that countries with higher rates of urbanization had higher per capita incomes. There are a range of "agglomeration effects" that boost the productivity of people in denser areas: a range of potential employers, reduced transportation costs of goods and people, knowledge spillovers, economies of scale, etc.



What is the economic impact of this migration to the cities?



People tend to be more economically productive in cities, for the reasons mentioned above. Still, migrants are often economically and socially vulnerable, and struggle to gain access to jobs, land, housing, and services.



Urbanization may be strongly associated with overall economic growth, but this does not mean that urbanization necessarily leads to reduced inequality. While the private sector plays a large role in providing jobs and constructing new urban areas, governments have an important role to play in ensuring that urbanization is inclusive.



Despite this development, would you still describe the region as mostly rural?



It depends on one's definition of "rural." By our measure, only 36 percent of the total population of the region lived in the 869 urban areas in the region that had more than 100,000 people. These 869 urban areas cover most places that would be considered "urban," but this varies from one country to another. So while East Asia is urbanizing rapidly, this still leaves a very large population living in small or rural settlements.



How do you expect migration to continue developing in the area in the coming years?



Previous projections of urban growth have proven inaccurate, and given the number of economic, political and environmental factors that drive urbanization, especially in this rapidly changing region, this particular study did not attempt to project urban growth into the future. Still, it is reasonable to expect that millions of people will continue to migrate to urban areas in coming years.



It is also important to recognize that migration is just one of the ways in which urbanization occurs. There is also natural increase within urban populations, i.e. births outnumbering deaths. Existing rural settlements also become more "urban" in scale and character over time, so what one might have considered rural today may be considered urban in the future.



What do you fear will be the social and environmental effects of this continuous migration to urban areas in East Asia?



Observing the social impacts of urbanization was beyond the scope of this particular study, which concentrated on measuring spatial changes, but it is clear that the social changes brought about by this massive ongoing shift will be far-reaching. In the study, we "e an article which looked at the impact of rural-to-urban migration on recent elections, e.g. in Indonesia, which suggested that "the urbanized villager may turn out to define the future of Asia."



On one hand, as mentioned previously, migrants are vulnerable and often do not have equal access to housing and services. On the other hand, they gain access to economic and educational opportunities, which in the long run can be empowering.



In terms of the environmental impacts, carbon emissions come predominantly from urban areas, but building urban areas where walking, bicycling and public transportation are viable commuting options can help mitigate the negative impacts of urban growth. Urban areas also face disaster risk, like floods and earthquakes. Risk-sensitive land use planning, i.e. ensuring that urban areas do not grow into dangerous areas, can help save lives in the long run.



Axel van Trotsenburg is the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Regional Vice President.



The interview was conducted by Gabriel Domínguez.