12.10.2026 10:19
In global markets, the dollar is hovering near its 18-month peak amid conflicts in the Middle East, fluctuations in oil prices, sharp sell-offs in bond markets, inflation concerns, and rising public debt. While the dollar index remains above the 102 level, investors' eyes have turned to inflation data to be released in the US.
In global markets, the dollar continues to trade near its highest levels of the last 18 months. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, fluctuations in oil prices and sharp movements in bond markets are supporting the US currency, while investors' eyes have turned to inflation data coming from the US.
DOLLAR INDEX ABOVE 102 LEVEL
The dollar index, which shows the dollar's performance against six major currencies, managed to remain close to the 18-month peak it reached last week, despite falling to 102.14.
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East, energy prices, sell-offs in bond markets, inflation concerns and rising public debt are effective in the dollar's strong course in global markets.
In particular, sharp sell-offs in bond markets in recent weeks have pushed global borrowing costs to their highest levels in decades.
HOUTHI ATTACKS STIR OIL MARKET
The increase in attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen against Saudi Arabia and the targeting of two oil tankers over the weekend caused fluctuations in energy markets.
Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia assessed that the Houthis could continue their attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy facilities.
According to analysts, the continuation of tension in the region could support demand for the dollar as well as oil prices.
EYES ON INFLATION DATA COMING FROM THE US
Investors focused on the US consumer price index (CPI) data to be released on Wednesday.
Inflation figures are expected to shape expectations regarding monetary policy ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate meeting at the end of October.
The economic indicators released last week revealed that consumer confidence in the US declined further at the beginning of October due to the impact of conflicts in the Middle East on the cost of living.
EXPECTATIONS REGARDING THE FED'S RATE DECISION HAVE CHANGED
The US Federal Reserve had raised interest rates last month for the first time since 2023 in order to bring inflation under control.
Markets are closely following economic data to assess whether the Fed will make another increase at its October meeting.
According to CME FedWatch data, the market expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month rose from 51 percent to 81 percent.
This change shows that investors are focusing on maintaining current interest rate levels rather than a new rate hike in the short term.
BARCLAYS WARNS OF A PULLBACK FOR THE DOLLAR
Despite the dollar's strong recent performance, some analysts believe the rally may slow. Barclays analysts stated that the dollar may pause its rise in the near term and experience a limited pullback.
Pointing out that sharp movements in bond markets have tightened global financial conditions, analysts said that especially if US inflation comes in below expectations, more dovish messages could come from Fed officials. In the markets, the inflation data to be released on Wednesday and the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of the month are seen as decisive developments for the direction of the dollar.