|
In global markets, a mixed trend is being observed amid concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may slow down the pace of its easing process following inflation data in the U.S. that exceeded expectations. Gold prices have started to rise again.
For some time, the growing confidence that inflationary pressures in the U.S. had weakened gave way to a cautious stance after the inflation data released yesterday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced yesterday showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual increase of 2.4% in September, surpassing expectations. Analysts noted that there could be changes in the Fed's rate cut pace following the released inflation data, emphasizing the increasing importance of signals from macroeconomic data to be announced in the country. Additionally, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 258,000 in the week ending October 5, exceeding market expectations. Thus, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits recorded its highest level since August 2023. Analysts pointed out that the increase in jobless claims may have been partially influenced by Hurricane Helene and worker strikes, and they mentioned that Hurricane Milton, which is affecting the state of Florida, could also impact employment data in the coming weeks. EXPECTATIONS FOR INTEREST RATES ARE DOWNWARDOn the other hand, while statements from Fed officials are being monitored, New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday that he expects further interest rate cuts as inflation pressures continue to ease. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed that depending on how the economic outlook develops, the bank is open to either cutting interest rates by a quarter point or keeping them steady at next month's meeting. Bostic stated, "If the data shows that this is appropriate, I am completely comfortable with skipping a meeting." Following the CPI data released yesterday, while the money markets have begun to price in the possibility that the Fed may keep its policy rate steady next month, expectations remain strong that there will be a total cut of 50 basis points in the two meetings scheduled by the end of the year, with 25 basis points each. Meanwhile, in the accelerating earnings season in the U.S., the financial results of the country's three largest banks, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of New York Mellon, are expected to be announced today. Analysts stated that signals from the companies' financial results could increase stock and sector-based volatility in the markets. With these developments, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.07%, while the dollar index started the day at 102.9.AFTER A SHORT PAUSE, GOLD IS ACTIVE AGAINThe price of gold per ounce finished yesterday with a gain of 0.8%, currently trading at $2,646, which is 0.6% above the previous close. The price of Brent crude oil closed yesterday at $78.9, up 3.1%, while today it is at $78.8, down 0.1%. MIXED TREND IN WESTERN STOCK MARKETSYesterday, on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.14%, the S&P 500 index by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq index by 0.05%. In the U.S., index futures started the day positively. In European stock markets, following the inflation data released in the U.S. yesterday, a selling trend dominated, except for Italy, while today all eyes are on the inflation data to be released in Germany. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue its easing process at its monetary policy meeting next week, while the flow of inflation and economic activity data from the region is being closely monitored. Yesterday, the German government updated its growth forecast for this year from the previously announced 0.3% to a negative 0.2%. Additionally, the minutes from the ECB's September monetary policy meeting revealed that while ECB Governing Council members were pleased with the progress of the disinflation process, they maintained a cautious stance regarding further policy easing. The minutes indicated that the council members advocated for a gradual policy easing in light of price pressures. The minutes also pointed out that core inflation and inflation in the services sector could be stickier and may not decline as expected, noting that the recent decline in headline inflation was largely influenced by the volatile drop in energy prices. With these developments, the DAX 40 index in Germany fell by 0.23%, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.24%, and the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 0.07%, while the FTSE MIB index in Italy rose by 0.43%. In Europe, index futures started the day with a mixed trend. In Asia, a mixed trend is being observed in the new trading day, while trading is not taking place in Hong Kong due to the holiday.
In China, news that the government will announce an economic stimulus package this weekend continues to influence market direction, while investors are showing caution ahead of this development.
On the other hand, the Bank of Korea lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, in line with expectations. As central bank officials in the region continue to provide verbal guidance, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stated that the central bank would consider adjusting interest rates if it has "more confidence" that the board's economic and price forecasts will materialize. With these developments, as the market neared closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.6%, while the Kospi index in South Korea fell by 0.1% and the Shanghai Composite index in China dropped by 1.6%. BIST ISTANBUL LOST VALUE AGAINYesterday, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a selling trend, closed the day down 1.84% at 8,964.10 points compared to the previous close. Today, all eyes are on the balance of payments data to be released domestically, while economists participating in the AA Finance Balance of Payments Expectation Survey predict that the current account balance will show a surplus of $3.956 billion in August. Economists estimate that the current account deficit will reach $17.771 billion in 2024. The dollar/TL closed down 0.2% at 34.1719 yesterday, while today it is trading at 34.2870, which is 0.4% above the previous close in the interbank market. Analysts stated that today, the current account balance and market participants survey will be monitored domestically, while inflation in Germany, industrial production and trade balance in the UK, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Michigan University consumer confidence index in the U.S. will be followed.870 and 8,710 points are noted as support, while 9,165 and 9,300 levels are noted as resistance. The data to be followed in the markets today is as follows:
09:00 Germany September Consumer Price Index (CPI)
09:00 United Kingdom, August industrial production
09:00 United Kingdom, August trade balance
10:00 Turkey, August current account balance
10:00 Turkey, August market participants survey
10:00 Turkey, August retail sales
15:30 USA, September Producer Price Index (PPI)
17:00 USA, October University of Michigan consumer confidence index .
|
Poem
Manşetler
Spor
Son Dakika
Haber
Yerel Haberler
