Election polls are a thing of the past: Blockchain technology has ushered in a new era in election forecasting.

The cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to profoundly impact the worlds of traditional finance and politics. Decentralized prediction markets are opening a new frontier in forecasting globally significant events, such as the U.S. presidential elections. These platforms have the potential to provide insights beyond traditional polling systems by directly reflecting the opinions of voters and investors. This trend, which has also caught the attention of leading figures in the tech world like Elon Musk, showcases the unexpected applications of cryptocurrency technology in various fields.

Decentralized Prediction Markets Experience 565% Growth

Prediction markets saw an attractive surge in the third quarter of 2024. Betting volume increased by 565.4% compared to the previous quarter, reaching $3.1 billion. This surge was driven by growing interest in the U.S. presidential elections.

Polymarket continues to maintain its leading position in the prediction market. As of September 2024, it dominates more than 99% of the market. The platform has generated 46% of its trading volume from the U.S. presidential election polls since the beginning of the year.

Former President Donald Trump is currently eight points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, according to Polymarket data. Trump's probability of winning the election is shown to be 53.8%, while the percentage of those who believe Harris will win remains at 45.3%.

Elon Musk argued that decentralized prediction markets could be more accurate than traditional polls in forecasting the results of the 2024 U.S. elections. This view suggests that crypto technology could represent a potential turning point in the field of political predictions.