Fitch Revises Up 2024 Global Growth Forecast To 2.6% From 2.4%

Fitch Ratings said Monday it had raised its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.6%, from its previous estimate of 2.4% made in its March Global Economic Outlook.

The upward revision is a result of improving confidence in European recovery, the revival of China's export sector, and domestic demand in emerging markets excluding China showing stronger momentum, according to the rating agency.

Eurozone's growth estimate for this year was revised up by 0.2 percentage point to 0.8%; however, the US growth forecast was unchanged at 2.1% since its economy is slowing but only gradually, it added.

"European recovery prospects are on a firmer footing as the terms-of-trade and energy shock reverses, energy-intensive industries start to pick up in Germany and real wages rebound," the agency said in a statement.

"The US economy is slowing as last year's outsized fiscal impulse fades, imports recover and credit growth remains weak. But household-sector labour income continues to grow at a decent clip and robust household finances do not point to a sudden jump in the saving ratio," it added.

China's 2024 growth also saw an upward revision to 4.8% from 4.5%, but that is expected to fall to 4.5% in 2025 as exports and government spending decelerate.

Growth expectation of emerging markets excluding China was also raised up sharply by 0.5 percentage points to 3.7% for this year.

"Domestic demand has weakened in China as the property market collapse worsens and private consumption growth remains anaemic," said the statement. "But fiscal policy is being loosened and exports have rebounded, helping real GDP."

"However, for 2025, we forecast world growth to edge down to 2.4% as US growth slows to a below-trend rate of 1.5% and growth in the eurozone picks up to 1.5%," it added.

The Turkish economy's growth forecast for 2024 was revised up to 3.5% from 2.8%, while it is expected to expand 3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. -