15.11.2026 11:22
US investment bank Goldman Sachs has cut its end-2027 forecast for gold per ounce from $4,800 to $4,650. The bank predicted that the Fed's interest rate hikes would suppress investor demand, while a strong recovery would come in December 2027, when the Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates. In a market where gold per ounce is at $3,878, gram gold is at 6,280 lira and quarter gold is at 10,257 lira.
A new revision has come from Goldman Sachs for gold, which has seen its lowest level in the last 13 months. Although the bank forecasts that pressure will continue in the short term, it maintained its long-term positive view due to central bank purchases.
FORECAST CUT FOR THE SECOND TIME IN A MONTH
Goldman Sachs cut its end-2027 forecast for gold per ounce by $150, or 3.1%, to $4,650. Despite this, the bank forecasts an upside potential of about 16% from the current price by December 2027.
This was the bank's second revision in November. Goldman Sachs strategists led by Lina Thomas had earlier this month cut their end-2026 forecast from $4,650 to $4,150 and their end-2027 forecast from $5,400 to $4,800.
GOLD'S BOTTOM: LOWEST IN 13 MONTHS
Gold per ounce, which gained about 64% in 2025 and had its best year since 1979, has fallen sharply recently. Gold per ounce fell to as low as $3,852, hitting its lowest level in the last 13 months. Gold per ounce is currently around $3,878.
FED'S RATE HIKE WEIGHS ON GOLD
The main reason for Goldman Sachs' forecast cut is interest rate expectations on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) side. According to the bank's scenario, the Fed is expected to make another rate hike in December and another 25 basis point increase in March 2027. Rising interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding gold, steering investors toward interest-bearing assets.
DECEMBER 2027 FLAGGED FOR THE RISE
Goldman Sachs forecasts that retail investor demand will revive once the Fed begins cutting rates in December 2027. The bank estimates that, together with continued central bank purchases, this recovery will carry gold to $4,650 by year-end.
CENTRAL BANKS ARE THE BIGGEST SUPPORT
The bank states that the most important factor supporting prices is central bank gold purchases. Goldman Sachs expects central banks to buy an average of 60 tons of gold per month in 2026 and 2027. Before 2022, this average was 17 tons. According to the bank, central banks in developing countries, especially China, still hold too little gold relative to their long-term targets.
HOW MUCH ARE GRAM AND QUARTER GOLD?
On Sunday, November 15, when markets are closed for the weekend, gram gold is bought at 6,279.53 lira and sold at 6,280.54 lira. The buying price of quarter gold is 10,036.29 lira, and the selling price is 10,257.53 lira. Half gold is sold at 20,515.05 lira, and full gold at 41,298.79 lira. The dollar/TL exchange rate is at 50.37.
WHAT DOES THE BANK'S REVISION MEAN FOR SMALL INVESTORS?
The price of gram gold depends on two factors: the price of gold per ounce in the international market and the dollar/TL exchange rate. While gold per ounce falls, a rise in the exchange rate can limit the loss in gram gold. Therefore, Goldman Sachs' dollar-based forecast may not be reflected one-to-one in gram gold.
The bank's scenario indicates that a significant rise in gold is not expected until the Fed begins cutting rates. In the short term, prices appear likely to remain volatile. Just as the bank's forecasts changed twice within a month, they can also be updated again according to market conditions.
For those buying physical gold, the difference between the buying and selling price is also an important cost item. For quarter gold, this difference is about 221 lira, or around 2.2%. Prices can also vary from jeweler to jeweler. In some markets, the selling price of the quarter gold rises to as much as 10,388 lira. While buying and selling within a short period can turn this difference into a loss, for those making long-term savings, this effect diminishes over time.