He warned the city of one million people with these words: An earthquake of up to magnitude 7.5 could occur.

Geological Engineer Adnan Evsen stated that the faults in Kayseri, which are known to have the potential to produce earthquakes up to a magnitude of 6.2, have been determined to have the potential to produce earthquakes up to a magnitude of 7.5 in the recent studies conducted by the Mineral Research and Exploration Institute (MTA), and that the possibility of earthquakes in the Erkilet, Erciyes, and Yeşilhisar Fault Zones has been evaluated.

Geological Engineer Adnan Evsen, who stated that many structures were heavily damaged in the earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş on February 6th, mentioned that there have been 17 historical period records around Kayseri so far. He said, "Until today, we have been evaluating the earthquake risk and hazard in the faults around Kayseri based on instrumental and historical earthquake records. Among the historical period records, there were predictions of 8 and 9 magnitude scales according to the intensity scale."

"ERKİLET FAULT CAN GENERATE EARTHQUAKES WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 7.5, ERCİYES FAULT WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 7.3"

Evsen emphasized in the report presented after the recent studies conducted by MTA that the faults, which were evaluated as 6.2 magnitude, were found to have the potential to produce earthquakes up to a magnitude of 7.5. He said, "A study was conducted on the faults around Kayseri within the scope of Turkey's Crustal Dynamics Project carried out by MTA. This study was published on MTA's website in February and its presentation was made a few days ago. Paleoseismological studies are among the most important studies in these studies. In these paleoseismological studies, it was necessary to know the type of faults, their maximum average magnitudes, slip amounts, displacement rates, earthquakes, dating of earthquakes, and average recurrence periods of earthquakes. With the study conducted by MTA, some of these unknowns were revealed. With these studies, it was understood that Yeşilhisar, İncesu, Erkilet, and Erciyes faults show both strike-slip and normal fault characteristics. According to the evaluations obtained from paleoseismological data, it is understood from the records that there have been a total of 14 earthquakes in Yeşilhisar, Erkilet, Erciyes, and İncesu faults since 25,400 BC. In addition, in the studies conducted on the Erkilet segment, it was determined that there were two more surface rupturing earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.3 and 6.7. Until today, we have been evaluating the earthquakes based on instrumental and historical period records up to a magnitude of 6.2. But from now on, we have learned the new earthquake risk, with the largest being 7.5 on the Erkilet Fault Zone. According to the report, it is understood that Yeşilhisar Fault Zone can produce earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.7, İncesu Fault Zone with a magnitude of 6.6, Erkilet Fault Zone with a length of 49 kilometers and a magnitude of 7.5, and Erciyes Fault with a length of 56 kilometers and a magnitude of 7.3."

"EARTHQUAKES CAN OCCUR IN ERKİLET, ERCİYES, AND YEŞİLHİSAR FAULTS"

Evsen drew attention to the 3 faults passing through Kayseri and said, "It has been determined in the studies that the Yeşilhisar Fault Zone has an average recurrence period of 3,000 years, the Erkilet Fault Zone has an average recurrence period of 4,000 years, and the Erciyes Fault Zone has an average recurrence period of 5,000 years. The last earthquake in the Yeşilhisar Fault Zone occurred 7,000 years ago, the earthquake in the Erkilet Fault Zone occurred 7,500 years ago, and the earthquake in the Erciyes Fault Zone occurred 15,000 years ago. Under these conditions, it has been evaluated that earthquakes can occur in both the Erkilet, Erciyes, and Yeşilhisar Fault Zones."

"10 EARTHQUAKES WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 6 ARE EQUAL TO 1 EARTHQUAKE WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 7"

Evsen, who stated that although there is a 1-point difference mathematically between earthquakes with magnitudes of 6 and 7, there is a 10-point difference logarithmically, said, "Earthquake magnitudes are evaluated differently from earthquake intensities. When earthquake magnitudes are determined, evaluations are made considering some characteristics. There is a 1-point difference mathematically between an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.0 and an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0. However, since it is logarithmic, this means a difference of 10 points. In other words, 10 earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 are equal to 1 earthquake with a magnitude of 7. When we used to make evaluations at a magnitude of 6.2, when the risk increased to a magnitude of 7.5 today, it means a difference of 13 times. Therefore, we need to distinguish between arithmetic and logarithmic differences here."

"SETTLEMENTS WITHIN A 100-KILOMETER DISTANCE WILL BE AFFECTED"

Geological Engineer Adnan Evsen also provided information about the regions that will be most affected in an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5. He said, "If an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 occurs, all settlements within a 100-kilometer distance, especially Kayseri center, Kocasinan, Melikgazi, Talas, İncesu, and Yeşilhisar, will be affected."