Here are the strongest possibilities for the minimum wage.

The Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, during the discussions of the 2025 budgets of the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Treasury and Finance in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, stated that the minimum wage will likely increase above inflation, saying, "We have not let our employees and retirees be crushed by inflation, and we will not. Our goal in this program remains the same. Inflation is currently at 47%, and by the end of the year, it will likely be around 45%. This year, the lowest civil servant salary increase is 78%, which is 1.7 times the inflation rate. The lowest pension has increased by 68%, which is 1.5 times the inflation rate. The minimum wage will also likely be above inflation," he evaluated.

Following Minister Şimşek's statements, expectations for the minimum wage have begun to be recalculated. In light of Şimşek's statements, the minimum wage, which is currently 17,002 TL, could reach the following figures for 2025:

* If calculated according to the current inflation, it will reach 24,992.94.

* If calculated according to the year-end inflation, it will reach 24,652.9.

3. IS THE EXPECTED INFLATION A SCENARIO?

Another possibility for the minimum wage is that the 2025 figure is calculated based on the expected inflation. According to this scenario, the inflation expected by the Central Bank for 2025 comes into play. The President of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), Fatih Karahan, stated on November 9 that the expected inflation for 2025 is between 16% and 26%, and for 2026, it is between 6% and 18%. When calculated according to the Central Bank's minimum and maximum expectations, the two predictions for the minimum wage in 2025 are as follows:

* According to the expected lowest rate of 16% for 2025, it will be 19,722.32,

* According to the expected highest rate of 26% for 2025, it will be 21,422.52.

Şimşek's statements clarified that even in the case of the lowest expected increase in the minimum wage for 2025, it should not be below 16%. However, Şimşek's failure to provide details on whether the minimum wage will be based on the 2024 or 2025 inflation has raised questions.