Inflation increased by 2.97% in September, reaching 49.38% on an annual basis.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) shared the inflation data for September with the public. Inflation increased by 2.97% on a monthly basis in September, exceeding expectations. Annual inflation decreased from 51.97% to 49.38%. Thus, annual inflation fell below the policy interest rate for the first time since July 2021.

The 12-month average inflation indicator, which determines the rent increase ceiling, was 63.47%. The Central Bank had kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 50% in September. In August, inflation had increased by 2.47% on a monthly basis. Annual inflation had decreased from 61.78% to 51.97%.

EXPECTATIONS OF ECONOMISTS

It was expected that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) would increase by 2.2% on a monthly basis in September, slowing down somewhat. It was also anticipated that annual inflation would decrease to 48.3%. Economists' year-end inflation expectation is around 42-43%.

HOW DID THE LEADING DATA COME IN?

Leading indicators such as Türk-İş and İTO data indicated an increase in monthly inflation. According to the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce data, inflation in Istanbul increased by 3.9% on a monthly basis in September. Annual inflation decreased to 59.18%. According to İTO, the highest price increases occurred in education items.

Türk-İş announced that kitchen inflation accelerated in September. According to the data, the minimum expenditure amount that a family of four needs to make for food increased by 2.90% compared to the previous month. The annual change in kitchen inflation was 48.72%. In September, the hunger threshold rose from 19,271 lira to 19,830 lira. The poverty threshold also increased from 62,772 lira to 64,595 lira.