21.04.2026 15:20
Fatih Birol, the President of the International Energy Agency (IEA), announced that 34 energy facilities in the Gulf have been seriously damaged due to the war. Birol stated, "Considering that the world's daily oil demand is at the level of 100 million barrels, a loss of 13 million barrels is significant. There is also a loss of around 100 billion cubic meters in natural gas supply. When we look at both, we are facing a crisis larger than all the energy crises we have encountered so far."
Birol answered questions from AA correspondent regarding the effects of the war in the Middle East on energy markets and his forecasts on this issue.
Birol pointed out that it is "not wise" for the world economy to be so dependent on such a narrow strait for many years, expressing that they warned that the economy could be paralyzed if the Strait of Hormuz were to close.
Stating that the closure of the Strait poses a significant energy security risk for the global economy, which exceeds 110 trillion dollars, Birol noted that all countries have started to think about what can be done in the short and medium term from now on.
Providing information about a daily loss of 13 million barrels of crude oil in terms of short-term oil supply, Birol continued:
"Considering that the world's daily oil demand is around 100 million barrels, a loss of 13 million barrels is significant. There is also a loss of around 100 billion cubic meters in natural gas supply. Looking at both, we are facing a crisis larger than all previous energy crises combined. This is not just an oil and gas crisis; it is also a difficult situation regarding some commodities that are extremely vital for the world economy. There is a huge problem regarding critical commodities for supply chains such as fertilizers, sulfur, helium, and petrochemical products."
200 OIL AND 10 LNG TANKERS WAITING FOR THE STRAIT TO OPEN
Birol stated that currently over 200 crude oil and petroleum product tankers and 10 liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are waiting full in the Gulf region.
He expressed that this supply would come to the market with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and that some relief could be seen, but he added, "However, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open safely and in a way that convinces everyone, it would be optimistic to expect oil and natural gas supply to return to pre-war levels. The most up-to-date data we have shows that 84 energy facilities, including oil and gas fields, refineries, and LNG terminals, are currently damaged. Of these, 34 have suffered serious and very serious damage. Returning production at these facilities to normal levels may take at least 2 years, and for some, this process may exceed 2 years."
"NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR A VOLATILE OIL MARKET"
Birol shared his forecasts for oil markets, stating that the most important factor determining prices will be the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring that it remains open, as guaranteed by all actors.
However, he noted that this way insurance companies would insure the ships and trade flow could continue, saying, "We all need to be prepared for a volatile oil market in the coming months. High oil prices pose a significant risk, especially for developing countries. High oil prices will accelerate inflation in many developing countries and lead to an increase in the trade deficit. My biggest fear is that this situation poses a risk of creating a foreign debt spiral for many countries."
Recalling that last week they formed a joint emergency crisis coordination group with the heads of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Birol stated that this group would work on providing direct financial and guidance support, especially to developing countries.
"SEVERAL ALTERNATIVES FOR TURKEY"
Birol noted that with the war, all countries are accelerating their search for alternatives, and alternative oil and gas routes, technologies, fuels, and energy partners will come to the agenda, stating, "In this context, Turkey has several alternatives ahead. One of the alternative projects Turkey should consider is a pipeline between Basra and Ceyhan and further development of the existing pipeline. Another could be the further expansion of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline."
Birol emphasized that the projects that may come to the agenda during this period need to be established on a solid political, financial, and legal basis, stating, "Many projects will compete with each other. But our country's advantage is the potential for oil and gas coming to Turkey to be transported to both the Mediterranean and Europe. This is a very important advantage."
STATUS OF ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE REGION
Following the start of the US/Israel-Iran War on February 28, significant damage occurred to the energy infrastructure in the Middle East due to the attacks carried out.
Among these are LNG production facilities in Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG producers, located in the Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial cities owned by QatarEnergy.
Additionally, significant infrastructure issues have arisen in many facilities in the region, including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq.