Millions of workers are focused on the minimum wage: Raise scenarios are on the table.

Millions of workers are wondering how much of a raise will be made to their salaries. As the end of the year approaches, expectations regarding the raise in the minimum wage have started to take shape. The minimum wage commission is expected to hold its first meeting in December.

NUMBERS DISCUSSED FOR MINIMUM WAGE

Economists are divided on the issue of the minimum wage increase. There has been ongoing debate about whether the minimum wage increase will be based on year-end inflation or target inflation. Some economists argue that the increase in the minimum wage could be over 30%. It is also predicted that the raise in the private sector will remain around 20%.

CURRENT STATUS OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

In the markets, the inflation expectation for 2024 is around 45%. According to the Central Bank's October survey, market participants' year-end inflation expectation has risen to 44.11%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) had announced the year-end inflation target as 38%. The upper limit was set at 42%. Economists have suggested that the inflation data for September, which exceeded expectations, could push this target higher. The CBRT had set the inflation target for 2025 at 14%. The upper limit for the target inflation was announced as 21%.

CBRT INFLATION TARGETS

2024: 38%

2024 upper limit: 42%

2024 lower limit: 34%

2025: 14%

2025 upper limit: 21%

MEDIUM-TERM PROGRAM (MTP) INFLATION TARGETS

2024: 41.5%

2025: 17.6%

2026: 9.7%

NEW MINIMUM WAGE ACCORDING TO INFLATION TARGETS

The minimum wage was increased by 49.11% in January last year, rising to 17,002 lira.

If the Medium-Term Program (MTP) inflation target of 41.5% is met, it will exceed 24,000 lira.

If the 2025 inflation target of 17.5% in the MTP is applied, it will rise to 19,975 lira.

When the increase is made according to the CBRT's 38% target, it will reach 23,460 lira.

When the CBRT's 2025 target of a 14% increase is applied, it will rise to 19,380 lira.

If the upper band increase of 21% is applied, it will be 20,570 lira.

If a 30% raise is given to the minimum wage, it will rise to 22,102 lira.

If a 40% raise is made, the new minimum wage will reach 23,802 lira.

With the market expectation of a 45% raise, it will be 24,650 lira.

STATEMENT FROM MINISTER IŞIKHAN

Minister of Labor and Social Security Vedat Işıkhan made a statement. Minister Işıkhan said, "As our President frequently expresses, we are in favor of protecting our citizens' welfare and producing permanent solutions rather than temporary ones. This will be my fundamental principle and philosophy. Just as we followed a certain path last December, we will follow the same path this year. I want the wage level to be such that it will not be eroded by inflation and will protect and enhance our citizens' purchasing power, as a citizen of this country and as a Minister." he said.

"THEY RAISE PRICES WHEN WE TALK"

Turk-Is General President Atalay stated that there are 4 months until the minimum wage is set, saying, "When you start talking, landlords and grocery stores continue to raise prices." Atalay also reiterated their demands for legislative changes regarding pension differences.