Morgan Stanley stated that the new minimum wage and bills in Turkey will increase by 30%.

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A striking analysis has been published for Turkey by the American investment bank Morgan Stanley. The report uses the phrase "At the brink of a turning point" for Turkey. The analysis, which lists expectations from minimum wage to inflation, indicates that a gradual interest rate cut cycle is approaching.

TURKEY: AT THE BRINK OF A TURNING POINT

In the report where the phrase "Turkey: At the brink of a turning point" is used, a decline to around 20% in inflation is projected for next year. According to TGRT News, the assessment is as follows: Real GDP growth fell from 5.3% in the first quarter of this year to 2.5% in the second quarter, indicating a more balanced composition between domestic demand and net exports. Industrial production contracted for the second consecutive quarter, and PMIs remained weak as of October. On the other hand, retail sales returned to positive growth in the third quarter, and consumer confidence has somewhat recovered, indicating resilience in domestic demand.

DATE OF THE START OF INTEREST RATE CUTS PREDICTED

Indicating that a gradual interest rate cut cycle is approaching, Morgan Stanley projected headline inflation to be 21% by the end of 2025 and 12% by the end of 2026.

30% INCREASE IN MINIMUM WAGE

Based on its expectation that real interest rates will remain relatively high, the institution supported its baseline scenario forecasts for headline inflation to drop from 44.5% in December 2024 to 26% by December 2025.

25% INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS PRICES

It was stated that these forecasts are based on the assumption of a 30% increase in minimum wage starting from January and a 25% increase in electricity and natural gas prices in the new year.

MINIMUM WAGE? HOW MUCH, WHAT PERCENTAGE WILL IT BE?

If a 30% increase is made to the minimum wage, it will rise to 22,102 lira.