New predictions about the minimum wage are on the agenda! This time, an increase in the welfare share is being discussed.

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The Central Bank raised its annual inflation forecast for 2024 to 44% at the last inflation meeting of the year. Thus, the year-end inflation expectation for 2024 has increased, and the year-end salary calculation for all employees and laborers has also been updated.

In the minimum wage increase that will be valid for 2024, there was a 37% inflation difference for the last six months. In addition, a 12-point welfare share increase was made. Thus, the total increase rate was 49%. In fact, this amount was a payment made against the value loss experienced due to the inflation of 2024. According to the Central Bank's new forecasts, if the year-end inflation occurs in the range of 42% to 44%, the increase in the minimum wage is expected to be between 30% and 35%.

With the tight monetary policy and the delayed effects of these policies, it has been observed that inflationary pressure has not yet been broken. For this reason, the rate to be applied for the minimum wage for 2025 will remain limited in this context.

MINIMUM WAGE EXPECTATIONS HAVE INCREASED

The final decision regarding the minimum wage for 2025 will be made by the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which will meet in December. However, based on President Erdoğan's statement, "We will not let employees and laborers be crushed by inflation," if a calculation is made, it seems highly likely that at least a 30% increase will be made on the current 17,002 TL. Thus, the net amount of the minimum wage for 2025 will be 22,102 TL.

WILL THERE BE AN INCREASE IN WELFARE SHARE IN MINIMUM WAGE?

In the calculation of the minimum wage for 2024, the inflation increase was accompanied by a 12% welfare share, resulting in a total increase of 49%. This year, the first signal regarding the welfare share increase came from the President of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Fatih Karahan.

Karahan announced the last inflation report of the year. After the inflation report, Karahan responded to a question regarding the minimum wage increase. He stated, "It is not true that we said something else 'behind closed doors' as claimed." The TCMB President emphasized that they are not the decision-makers regarding the minimum wage increase.

Karahan's statement, "In a high inflation environment, wages erode," was the second signal from an authoritative source following the President's words regarding the welfare share increase.