09.06.2026 17:00
After reaching an all-time high of $5,594 in January and then entering a downward trend, gold has received a concerning report from international financial institution Citi. Analysts, noting high short-term risks, predicted that if geopolitical uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz persist until the end of summer, gold could lose 20% of its value from the current $4,357 per ounce level, falling to as low as $3,500.
While global markets are focused on sharp fluctuations in gold prices, an alarming warning came from international financial giant Citi that put investors on alert. The bank's analysts stated that gold carries high risk in the short term and presented a crash scenario where the ounce price could drop to $3,500.
SHARP RETREAT FROM HISTORIC PEAK
Gold prices tested an all-time historic peak of $5,594 per ounce last January. However, after this record rally, the wind turned in the markets, and the precious metal entered a sharp pullback process. As volatility escalates in global markets, the old upward momentum in gold has given way to a distinct downtrend.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS COULD HIT GOLD
The Citi report, as cited by CNBC, highlighted that short-term risks are very high. The most striking detail in the report was the adverse impact of geopolitical developments on gold. Analysts predicted that if geopolitical uncertainties regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the heart of the global oil and trade network, extend until the end of summer, gold per ounce could fall to $3,500. This scenario implies a significant loss of nearly 20% from gold's current trading level of $4,357.
IS THE SAFE HAVEN ERA SHAKEN?
Analysts emphasized that although gold has historically been regarded as a "safe haven," it presents a fragile outlook in the current conjuncture in the short term. According to the report, prolonged disruptions in critical maritime transit routes could weaken global gold demand contrary to expectations.
Other major factors pressuring gold prices are listed as follows:
- High real interest rates globally,
- The strong stance of the US dollar in international markets,
- Weakening economic activity in emerging markets,
- Tightening or shifting monetary policies of central banks.
EYES ON ENERGY PRICES FOR REBALANCING
Citi analysts noted that a reversal of this pessimistic scenario depends on geopolitical easing. The report stated that a decrease in military and political tension in the Strait of Hormuz, and consequently a decline in energy prices, would ease selling pressure on gold, allowing the market to rebalance and take a breather.