02.11.2026 10:40
With the October inflation data that TÜİK will announce tomorrow, the 4th critical figure in the pension increase will become clear; according to the scenarios on the table, the lowest pension is expected to rise to between 25,410 TL and 25,926 TL, and a welfare share of 10-20 percent or an additional flat increase of 10-15 thousand TL is expected to be added.
The 4th critical data for the pension increase will be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) tomorrow at 10:00. Following the announcement of October inflation data, the figure to be set for pension increases will largely become clear. According to the 3-month inflation data, the increase that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive has been finalized at 5.57%. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's signals that a new regulation will be made for retirees have brought the welfare share to mind, and adding a welfare share of between 10% and 20% to the inflation increase is among expectations.
Many forecasts and calculations have been made for the January 2027 pension increase. So far, according to the 3-month inflation data, the increase rate that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive has become clear. While new regulations for retirees are expected, calculations for the increase rate to be applied to retirees next year based on inflation rates are gradually taking shape.
HOW MUCH WAS THE PENSION INCREASE IN JULY?
For retirees, total inflation in July was 17.76% for the first six-month period of 2026. After the increase reflected in salaries, the lowest pension was calculated as 23,552 lira.
Based on this rate, together with an additional 6.52% increase, a 13.52% increase was made in the monthly pay and wages of public officials and retired civil servants, effective from this month.
WHAT IS THE DIRECTION OF OCTOBER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS?
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will announce monthly and annual inflation data on Tuesday at 10:00. Thus, the fourth data point regarding the increase rate to be reflected in retiree and civil servant salaries will have emerged. So far, the inflation rate to be reflected in salaries has been 5.57%.
AA Finans's Inflation Expectation Survey, conducted with the participation of 21 economists, has concluded. The average of the economists' expectations for monthly inflation in October was calculated as 2.20%. The economists' forecasts ranged between 1.25% and 2.70%.
If monthly inflation materializes in line with expectations, annual inflation, which was 29.73% in September, is forecast to decline to 29.28% in October. The average of the economists' year-end 2026 inflation expectations was 29.64%.
According to the economists' expectations, if monthly inflation comes in at 2.20% in October, the following picture emerges for pensions:
- SSK, Bağ-Kur pension increase rate: 7.89%
- Inflation difference to emerge: 0.83%
- Cumulative increase to be reflected in civil servants: 5.88%
According to this calculation, the lowest pension applied as 23,552 lira corresponds to 25,410 TL.
On the other hand, different forecasts are also being made for the 6-month inflation difference that retirees will receive. According to the Market Participants Survey, it was 29.61% in the previous survey period and 29.63% in this survey period.
Accordingly, the 6-month total inflation to be reflected in pension increases will be 10.8%. The 3-month total inflation announced so far has been calculated as 5.57%. According to this calculation, the lowest pension applied as 23,552 TL will rise to approximately 25,926 TL with a 10.08% increase, according to the CBRT market participants survey.
According to the economists' inflation calculations, the 6-month increase rate will vary between 8.70% and 10.73%. Among year-end inflation forecasts, the most frequently mentioned rate is 28%. If inflation comes in at 28% at the end of 2026, the rate to be reflected in salary increases will be 8.70% for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees.
If this calculation materializes, the lowest pension will rise by 2,049 lira to 25,601 lira. The retired civil servant increase will be 6.67%. Thus, the lowest retired civil servant salary will be calculated as 33,631 lira.
If year-end inflation reaches 29.6%, salary calculations will change. The increase rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will rise to 10.06%. Thus, the lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur pension will be 25,921 lira.
WELFARE SHARE AND ACROSS-THE-BOARD INCREASE ON THE TABLE
In the regulations to be made for retirees, the welfare share and an across-the-board increase have come to the agenda. According to a report by Faruk Erdem from Sabah, the January increase is calculated to be 10% for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. The welfare share to be added on top of this is estimated to be in the 10-20 point range. According to the news on A Haber, an across-the-board increase of 10,000 or 15,000 lira is being considered.